Some NFL betting wonks believe that the NFL labor dispute, which shortened practice time and delayed free agent signings this year, could have an impact on the first weekend of the regular season. The theory espouses that teams with continuity in their coaching staffs and stability at the key quarterback position will have an edge early in the season.
At a combined 65 games under .500 and without a single team with a winning record against the number, this is the worst performing pointspread division in the league, a trend NFL betting aficionados will be watching closely again this season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
NFC South teams have been 13-23 as home underdogs the last four years, an emerging trend that NFL betting followers surely will be monitoring this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay is not just good on the field but at the windows, posting an against the spread (ATS) record of 19-11 over division foes the past five seasons , a trend that NFL betting devotees will be watching in 2011. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
In a complete reversal of form, Washington was the division's only team with a winning record against the spread last season, an unexpected development that NFL betting fans will be closely monitoring this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Newly minted No. 1 ranked Novak Djokovic and 27-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams opened as respective favorites to win the men's and women's singles titles at the 2011 US Open at Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York, Aug. 29-Sept. 11.
Combined, Denver, Kansas City and Oakland have amassed just two winning seasons against the spread (ATS) over the past five seasons, a dismal statistic that NFL betting wonks will try to turn to their advantage in 2011. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses
The Colts have dominated the AFC South for nearly a decade but it's the Titans, who are 45-36-1 against the spread (ATS) overall and 20-10 versus the number within the division the last five seasons, who have been best wagering friends to NFL betting enthusiasts. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Pittsburgh doesn't just dominate this division but causes pain to anyone it plays as evidenced by the five year 22-39 ATS (against the spread) record of teams the week after playing the Steelers. It's a clear warning to NFL betting devotees that Pittsburgh doesn't just play teams as much as punish them. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Most pundits see the AFC East race as a battle between the offensive minded Patriots and the defensively stingy Jets, the two teams which also have the division's best against the spread (ATS) records since 1998, a statistic not lost on NFL betting fans. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2010 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
With players and owners having settled their grievances and signed a CBA (collective bargaining agreement) that assures football betting fans there will be action for at least another decade, NFL Super Bowl future book betting already has kicked off on home computer screens and at wagering watering holes around the globe in advance of the league's season opener, Sept. 8.
While NFL owners and players wonder how long it will take for the notoriously glacial moving federal court system to bring the game back on the field, NFL betting fans are wondering if the recently concluded draft will have any immediate wagering impact on this year's season...if there is one.
We're not even sure there'll be a season this year but under the assumption that owners and players aren't greedy or stupid enough not to come to an agreement, NFL betting aficionados are gearing up for the April 28 Draft, a parade of talent that innovative sportsbooks have turned into the first bet of the 2011 season even if there is no 2011 season.
The glee in Green Bay and the pain in Pittsburgh may linger but NFL betting on which team will win Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Feb. 5, 2012 already has kicked off at sportsbooks and wagering emporiums around the globe.
The Super Bowl is over and the 2010 season is officially dead, reason enough to slip on the surgical gloves and sift through the remains of the NFL betting carcass in hopes of finding some useful clues for a 2011 season that, providing the labor dispute is resolved, will kick off in just a few short months.
It's been 20 years since the NFL waved good bye to an uninterrupted 16-game schedule, giving each team a bye week during the regular season while providing NFL betting enthusiasts with yet another variable to consider when matching cash to conviction.
NFL betting on totals, where the gambler wagers that the combined points scored by the two teams in an individual game are over or under a predetermined number, represents only about 10 percent of overall football handle but that's more a function of bet takers being cautious than bet makers being reticent.
Poor strategy or not, as the last game of the week, Monday Night Football, which has been a broadcast staple since 1970, is the final chance for NFL betting fans to get even, or, as often is the case, to get even worse. For bet makers and bet takers alike, MNF, which moved to the ESPN cable network in 2006 and has logged more time on the tube than any show except 60 Minutes, often is the difference between winning and losing.
Although there's still another game left in each betting week, when the NBC network began flexing its broadcasting muscles in 2006 by demanding a stronger schedule, Sunday Night Football quickly emerged as a wagering staple for NFL betting fans.
There's a school of thought that when it comes to NFL betting, the opening week of the season is the easiest one for gamblers to beat sportsbooks. The assumption is that a number of factors, including NFL teams being cautious with their key players and hiding their true nature during the preseason, conspire to thwart oddsmakers, making it difficult for the numbers crunchers to make a clear evaluation of teams for the first week of the season.
At a combined 65 games under .500 and without a single team with a winning record against the number, this is the worst performing pointspread division in the league, a trend NFL betting aficionados will be watching closely again this season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Every team in the NFC South played more "under" than "over" games last season, a possibly emerging trend that NFL betting and against the spread (ATS) followers surely will be monitoring this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Green Bay continued its dominance over division foes last season, going 4-2 against the spread (ATS) to bring its four-year pointspread mark within the NFC North to 17-7, a trend that NFL betting devotees will be watching in 2010. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Combined, Denver, Kansas City and Oakland have amassed just one winning season against the spread (ATS) over the past four seasons, a dismal statistic that NFL betting wonks will try to turn to their advantage in 2010. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
The Colts have won at least 12 games every year since 2003 but it's the Titans, who are 37-28-1 against the spread (ATS) overall and 16-8 versus the number within the division the last four seasons, who have been best wagering friends to NFL betting enthusiasts. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Pittsburgh, which hadn't had a losing pointspread season since 2002, was just 5-10-1 against the spread (ATS) last year, a clear warning to NFL betting devotees that trends can change quite quickly and that every tendency must be monitored with care and diligence. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Most pundits see the AFC East race as a battle between the offensive minded Patriots and the defensively stingy Jets, the two teams which also have the division's best against the spread (ATS) records since 1998, a statistic not lost on NFL betting fans. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
The official kickoff of the 2010 regular season won't occur until Sept. 9 but NFL betting already is underway at sportsbooks around the globe. In fact, operators of some sportsbooks not only have future book prices available for the Super Bowl, the AFC and NFC Championships, and each of the league's eight divisions, but over/under numbers for each team's regular season victories and points scored, as well. There also are odds on each team's chances of making the playoffs and where each team will finish within its own division. And if that isn't enough to quench your NFL betting thirst, some truly ambitious sportsbooks even are offering odds on which gridiron star will win the league's Most Valuable Player award.
The 2010 NFL Draft kicks off in prime time on ESPN, April 22 and while NFL teams will be betting their futures on how wisely they select from the pool of eligible collegiate talent, NFL betting fans will be risking their bankrolls on pretty much the same thing.
The confetti may not have been swept from the streets of New Orleans yet but most sportsbooks already have NFL betting available on which team will win Super Bowl XLV next February. Every wager should have merit on its own-write that down and store it some place handy-but NFL futures can have additional value as a hedging tool.
The Super Bowl slammed the lid on the 2009 football season but NFL betting fans would be wise to examine the corpse before burying the gridiron body. In fact, an autopsy of the regular season unveils several valuable clues for an upcoming campaign that is just seven months away.
Oddsmakers may have opened Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite over New Orleans but Super Bowl betting fans quickly showed their disapproval of that number, backing the Colts to a 5-point choice over the Saints in the NFL Championship game in Miami, Feb. 7. The total on the game, which opened at 52, also has been bet up to as high as 56 at some sportsbooks.
Gamblers have understood the importance of Mother Nature for ages, or at least from the early seventies when a few enterprising bettors began to chart wind velocity and direction in select MLB cities to help them gain an edge wagering on baseball totals.
Gamblers have understood the importance of Mother Nature for ages, or at least from the early seventies when a few enterprising bettors began to chart wind velocity and direction in select MLB cities to help them gain an edge wagering on baseball totals.
While 90 percent of NFL betting action is on the pointspread, there are some gamblers who find value in totals, the wagering pursuit where you bet whether the combined points scored by the teams in an individual game are over or under a prescribed number. Other gamblers believe that "totals," as they're called, are sucker bets, another diversion designed by the house to separate the player from his money. Of course, if that were true, bookmakers wouldn't have to place such severe restrictions on over/under wagering.
Since the introduction of the 17-week schedule to the NFL in 1990, every team has enjoyed a week off during the regular season, a scheduling phenomenon that has created yet another wagering variable for NFL betting fans to consider. Savvy gamblers will tell you this is a good development; that the more complex the betting equation, the better the opportunity to find advantages where the less focused, less disciplined and less determined bettor fears to tread.
Monday Night Football has been broadcast into homes across America since 1970, adding an extra day to the gridiron weekend that has been both used and abused by ardent NFL betting enthusiasts over the past 40 years. Because it is the final game of the week, MNF often is the difference between winning and losing for bet makers and bet takers alike.
It's not the last game of the week but when NBC took over and began flexing its muscles in 2006 by commanding a strong schedule, Sunday Night Football quickly became a wagering staple for NFL betting fans.
Arizona eked out a winning record against the spread last season but over the past five years this is the worst performing pointspread division in the league, a trend NFL betting aficionados will be watching closely again this season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
With fewer wagering opportunities than any other team sport, NFL betting places a premium on gamblers to get off to a quick start. That again will be the case when the NFL kicks off another season, Sept. 10.
Every team in the NFC South held its own against the spread, especially in non-division play where the four teams were a combined 24-14-2 ATS last season, a statistic that NFL betting enthusiasts surely will be monitoring this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
The division enjoyed a combined 22-16-2 pointspread record in other neighborhoods last season, attesting to the overall strength of the NFC East. The division draws the weak AFC West this year so more wagering success is likely, though NFL betting fans will want to watch for inflated lines. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
The Colts have won at least 12 games every year since 2003 but it's the Titans, who are 31-19 against the spread overall and 14-4 versus the number within the division the last three seasons, who have been best wagering friends to NFL betting enthusiasts. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Pittsburgh hasn't had a losing pointspread season since 2002 and Baltimore was one of the league's best against the spread last year, trends that NFL betting devotees undoubtedly will be monitoring this season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
Just five of the Sun Belt Conference's nine teams have pointspread records dating back nine years so there's not a great statistical data base for bettors. Among independents, only Navy has been a decent play versus the number since 2000. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 records, returning starters (RS) - including kickers - and returning lettermen (RL) in parentheses:
For a great many NFL betting enthusiasts, their initial wager of the 2009 season won't be on the first game of the upcoming campaign but on the last. Future book betting on the 2010 Super Bowl, where prices are far more generous than the usual 10/11 odds gamblers readily accept on individual games, is a nice way to start the gridiron betting season.
The NFL Draft had its impact on NFL betting as 13 off the league's 32 teams had their Super Bowl future book odds adjusted at the conclusion of the personnel lottery in New York City, April 25-26.
With and the start of the NFL preseason still more than five months away, bookmakers quickly rushed to fill the wagering void by offering future book prices on which team will win Super Bowl
They still may be sweeping the streets of confetti in Pittsburgh but NFL betting fans just about everywhere else already have turned their attention to the 2009 season.
With and the start of the NFL preseason still more than five months away, bookmakers quickly rushed to fill the wagering void by offering future book prices on which team will win Super Bowl XLIV in Dolphin Stadium, in Miami, Feb. 7, 2010.
One trend, as it has in the previous six seasons, again was validated last year: Straight up (SU) losers are losers against the spread (ATS), too. In fact, of the 11 teams that had SU regular season losing records in 2008, not a single one of them had a winning record ATS:
Call it short-term memory loss if you like but NFL betting fans can get spoiled on a team's previous season's results. The notion lingers of the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, Packers and Giants as elite teams while the Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Rams and Ravens are etched in the brain as sub-standard football clubs.
NCAA hoops, which are pushing the NFL for the most popular wagering sport among North American gamblers, won't tip off until November but college basketball betting fans can get an early start on the action right now.
Shouldn't anyone eyeing a serious sports bet or three on the NFL Playoffs have their TV remote set to the Weather Channel? Don't games where there is snow, rain and/or wind favor the underdog?
New England's dream season ended in a nightmare in the Super Bowl but it's difficult to see how the Patriots won't dominate this division again, certainly straight up and probably against the spread, as well.
There's not much separating Pittsburgh and Cleveland at the top of the division this year and, come to think of it, Cincinnati and Baltimore at the bottom.
The Giants may have won Super Bowl LXII just five months ago but in a lack of NFL betting respect only the late Rodney Dangerfield could appreciate, New York isn't even favored to win its own division this season.
The continued popularity of NFL preseason betting can be linked to America's growing addiction to anything football. Bettors, particularly those in the United States who have survived a five-month hiatus from their favorite wagering sport, seem unwilling (or unable) to endure another five weeks before the NFL preseason.
Legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough was fond of saying that NFL betting is part reality and part perception, a description that aptly fits this year's recently concluded NFL draft.
The teams had barely left bone-chilling Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the word arrived from up high (actually, the second floor of a building in Las Vegas)
The greatest non-sporting event in sports, the NFL Draft, should lure gridiron-starved NFL fans and, far more tellingly, savvy NFL betting fans, to their TV screens when the annual, dust-off-the-Barcalounger, grab-the-giant-Doritos-bag, telethon-like coverage begins April 26.
Most unsophisticated sports bettors hit the gridiron running, with little or no concern for whether their best chance for success rests with college football betting, nfl betting or a combination of both.
Granted, New Orleans isn't going to surprise anyone this year but with a solid cast, a new winning attitude, and only Carolina as serious division opposition, the Saints should march to another NFC South title.
The Bears have a much more difficult schedule than a year ago when they won 13 games but the NFC North is so weak that it will be difficult for Chicago not to win 10 or 11 games and capture a third straight division title.
The NFC East remains the most competitive division in the NFL, with every team capable to beating (or losing) to every other. The most consistent team will win the division.
Like the Patriots, Ravens and Colts, the Chargers are the class of their division, arguably the best team in the NFL. Unlike New England, Baltimore and Indianapolis, however, San Diego will get a stern test for the division title from rivals Denver and Kansas City.
Like most recent defending Super Bowl champions, the Colts may find it difficult to repeat, but winning another AFC South title should be no problem. Indianapolis has a wide edge over its division rivals.
The Ravens won the division by five games last season and while the margin may not be as significant this year, Baltimore should have little difficulty defending against wild card hopefuls Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Any unbiased assessment would mark the Patriots as the clear division favorite with a good chance to challenge the Colts, Chargers and Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
