As regular readers (thanks, Mom) will recall, this is the time of the season when we pit art against science in an annual college football betting ritual matching the Nevada oddsmaking community against a man and his computer models.
Just five of the Sun Belt Conference's nine teams have pointspread records dating back eight years so there's not a great statistical data base for bettors. Among independents, only Navy has been a reliable play since 2000.
The Giants may have won Super Bowl LXII just five months ago but in a lack of NFL betting respect only the late Rodney Dangerfield could appreciate, New York isn't even favored to win its own division this season.
Only one Conference USA team, East Carolina, has enjoyed a winning pointspread record over the last eight seasons, so there are wagering opportunities here.
The WAC may not be at the top of every gambler's list but many of the conference's teams have fallen into statistically reliable betting categories over the past decade.
Pac-10 teams were 21-14 ATS outside their conference last season but don't appear to be as strong, overall, this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2007 records, returning starters (RS) - including kickers - and returning lettermen (RL) in parentheses:
Don't go to sleep on the Big East. Conference teams were 22-16-1 ATS outside their league last year and, if history is a guide, could be undervalued and underestimated by oddsmakers again in 2008.
The kickoff of the 2008 season still is weeks away but there are at least a couple of good reasons why college football betting should be near the top of your wagering playbook right now.
Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books.
Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books.
Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books.
Of the eight teams in the Sun Belt conference, only two, Troy and Middle Tennessee, had winning records last year and just one, Troy, is above .500 for the past seven seasons.
Western Michigan and Toledo look solid but overall the MAC appears mediocre at best with a quartet of teams (Miami, Temple, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan) having won two or fewer games last season.
Southern Mississippi and Houston, the winners of the respective East and West divisions of CUSA last season, again will be the teams to beat this year.
For the second year in a row, there could be another undefeated BCS bound team from the WAC, only this season it's more likely to be Hawaii than Boise State.
The MWC is a league with three strong teams and six weak ones with BYU, TCU and Utah clearly in position to dominate. The Cougars get the nod because they get to play both the Horned Frogs and Utes at home this year.
Either West Virginia or Louisville - but not both - could have a chance to play for the national championship. The teams meet before a Thursday night national television audience in Morgantown, Nov. 8. Notre Dame will be the best of the three independents, though Navy may have more victories this season.
Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Shootout in the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 6 in a contest that could decide one of the representatives in the BCS title tilt.
USC will begin the year as the top team in the nation, a position the Trojans will have a good chance of defending, if they can negotiate road trips to Oregon and California.
