The Super Bowl is over and the 2010 season is officially dead, reason enough to slip on the surgical gloves and sift through the remains of the NFL betting carcass in hopes of finding some useful clues for a 2011 season that, providing the labor dispute is resolved, will kick off in just a few short months.
Our autopsy results are remarkably similar to the ones we've uncovered the past eight years we've taken a scalpel to the NFL's rotting corpse: Teams with winning records straight up (SU) also are good against the spread (ATS) and teams that did not win a majority of their games on the field, aren't very good at the windows, either. There are exceptions, of course, but of the 14 teams that had winning records during the regular season, only two of them had losing records versus the points. And of the 16 teams that had SU losing records, 13 of them also failed to beat the pointspread for the season.
Just to keep the bookkeeping in order, two teams, Jacksonville and Oakland, finished 8-8 SU with the Jags notching a 9-7 mark ATS and the Raiders finishing 8-8 versus the points.
The 14 teams with winning SU records were 152-72 on the field and 122-97-5 (.557) on the betting line. The 16 teams with losing SU records were 86-170 on the gridiron and 112-136-8 (.451) versus the pointspread.
Of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs, nine of them also had winning marks ATS, one broke even and two teams, New Orleans and Seattle, failed to at least reach the .500 level ATS, each finishing at 7-9 versus the points:
TeamSUATS
New England14-210-5-1
Atlanta13-311-5
Pittsburgh12-410-6
Baltimore12-48-7-1
Chicago11-59-6-1
NY Jets11-59-7
New Orleans11-57-9
Green Bay10-69-7
Indianapolis10-68-7-1
Kansas City10-69-7
Philadelphia10-68-8
Seattle7-97-9
Conversely, the teams at the bottom of standings also were disappointing ATS:
TeamSUATS
Carolina2-144-12
Denver4-126-10
Cincinnati4-127-9
Buffalo4-127-7-2
Cleveland5-115-10-1
Minnesota5-117-9
We've been told that "defense wins championships" but most of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs did it more with offense, especially where total betting is concerned. In fact, the dozen teams had a combined 104-85-3 over/under record (.550).
On the other cleat, the half-dozen teams with the worst SU records in the league were 47-48-1 in terms of over/under.
If you're looking for longtime excellence versus the spread, no team measures up to New England. Since 2003, the Patriots are 79-45-4 (.637) ATS during the regular season, by far the best pointspread record in the NFL. Not surprisingly, New England averaged 31.7 points per game last season, over four points more per game than any other team.
Surely, Detroit was the biggest pointspread surprise team of the just concluded season. The Lions were just 6-10 SU but lost four games by four points or fewer and finished 12-3-1 ATS, the best mark in the NFL last year. Detroit also posted a 10-5-1 over/under record and could be one of the teams that NFL betting aficionados determine is a strong play in 2011.
If Detroit was the most pleasant pointspread surprise then Dallas was the least joyful. The Cowboys, who many speculated would win the NFC East and would be a Super Bowl favorite since the game was played on their home field, had a miserable season, finishing 6-10 both SU and ATS.
So what does 2010 tells us about 2011? The lesson remains the same: Teams that win on the field are far more likely to have success against the spread than teams that lose on the gridiron. And while it's impossible to predict with certainty which teams will excel on the field come September, the likelihood is that of the dozen teams that notched double-digit wins last season, perhaps as many as 10 of them, the Packers, Steelers, Bears, Falcons, Eagles, Jets, Saints, Patriots, Colts and Ravens, could be good plays at the windows, too.
When it comes to NFL betting, the past can be a good indicator of the future.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
