With the first round elimination of the Spurs, the team with the best regular season record this season, quickly followed by the four-game sweep of the two-time defending champion Lakers, NBA betting fans may be looking for a new team to back in the ongoing playoffs. Look no further than Dallas, where the Spurs are fashioning one of the greatest bettor-friendly streaks in post-season history.
The Mavericks, who began the year as 20/1 longshots to capture their first NBA Championship and were only a slightly better 18/1 heading into the playoffs, are a remarkable 10-0 against the spread (ATS) in the post-season. That includes an opening round six-game thumping of Portland in which Dallas covered three times as a favorite and another three times as an underdog, along with a four-game sweep of Los Angeles, where Dallas was equally impressive, winning twice as a home favorite and twice as a road underdog.
You can't exactly blame NBA betting practitioners for missing the Mavericks' surge given that over the past four seasons Dallas has all but disappeared in the playoffs, posting a 9-17-1 ATS record that does not include a single winning post-season campaign against the points.
Teams that have won NBA Championships in recent years also have been generous to bettors but never to the extent of the Mavericks. For example, last season, the Lakers were 12-11 ATS during the playoffs, not as good as the team's 14-10 record ATS in the 2009 playoffs. The Celtics posted a modest 14-12 mark ATS in winning their last title in 2008 and the Spurs were 13-6-1 ATS when they won their last NBA Championship in 2007. Dallas' pointspread run, which includes covering the number in the last four games of the regular season, is unprecedented.
The Mavericks, who were 12-6 as road underdogs during the regular season, have expanded on that success during the playoffs, going 5-0 in that role. Dallas also was a very solid 35-20-2 ATS in games following a straight up (SU) win and now has added seven consecutive more covers in that category.
The Mavericks also headed into the playoffs with an ATS record of 26-17-1 in games following a pointspread victory and now are 35-17-1 ATS in that scenario after notching nine more wins.
How has Dallas managed to forge an 8-2 SU playoff record while going 10-0 ATS? It looks like the Mavericks, who always have been known for their potent attack, have done it with defense. While Dallas is scoring three points less in the playoffs than in the regular season (99.9 to 96.9), the Mavericks have more than made up for that on defense where they're giving up just 88.2 points per game in the playoffs, seven less than they permitted (95.2) during the regular season.
Meanwhile, San Antonio and Los Angeles have burned bettors' money as if it were trash. The Spurs, who opened the season at future book odds of 20/1 and entered the playoffs at 3/1, were bounced out in the first round in six games by the Memphis Grizzlies, a surprising 60/1 longshot entering the post-season. San Antonio covered just one game in that series, a fifth-game home survival where the Spurs beat the 6 1/2-point spread by just a half-point. Overall, San Antonio backers endured a 1-5 ATS post-season.
The Lakers, who sportsbooks sent into the playoffs as 9/5 favorites, covered three of six games versus the Hornets before being humiliated by being swept both SU and ATS by the Mavericks.
Four other teams of which much was expected, Boston, Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City, have struggled in the playoffs and as of Monday, May 9, were a combined 14-17-1 ATS with not a single one of them boasting a winning record versus the points.
Conversely, heading into May 9, Memphis was 7-2 ATS in the playoffs while Atlanta was 7-3 ATS.
It would be easy to write off Dallas' pointspread success as a case of lowered expectations but knocking off the defending NBA champions in four games suggests there's something more brewing here. NBA betting fans ignore those signs at their own peril.
