Some sportsbooks already have posted college basketball betting future book prices on which team will win next year's NCAA Men's championship but savvy gamblers might be wise to survey the results of the most recent March Madness before investing too much on the 2012 Big Dance.
Technical handicappers—those sports betting fans who analyze wagering trends in hopes that a knowledge of the past will help in the future—have to be wondering if underdogs will continue to be good bets next year. Counting the four play-in games (which, by the way, we refuse to call "Round 1"), underdogs covered 39 of the 67 games, a bookie-beating 58 percent. It shouldn't come as too much of a shock that underdogs had their best showing during the first round of the tournament, when teams that were largely unfamiliar to oddsmakers, kept things close against double-digit favorites.
In fact, 20 of the first 32 games were covered by the dog, including Boston University (+23 1/2) versus Kansas, Long Island University (+18) versus North Carolina, Akron (+14) versus Notre Dame, Princeton (+13) versus Kentucky, and Oakland (+10) versus Texas. Not knowing the capabilities of teams such as BU, which only was on the board 10 times prior to the tournament, LIU (three times) and Belmont (10 times), surely made those opening round pointspreads more difficult to make but less reliable as well. Even teams that were on the board significantly, such as Akron and Princeton, were difficult to assess outside their conferences.
In terms of opening round totals, 18 games went under the number, 11 over it and three landed right on the number for pushes. That figures out to 62 percent for "under" bettors. Perhaps oddsmakers underestimated the pressure associated with NCAA Tournament play and the impact stress can have on shooters. So it's of little surprise that defense, which requires more tenacity than skill, had the edge over offense during the first days of the Big Dance. The underdog-and-under parlay, which, traditionally, is second only to the favorite-and-over parlay, connected a dozen times during the first round, more than enough to secure a solid profit for those college basketball betting aficionados who attacked that angle. Meanwhile, favorite-and-over parlay clicked in just four of the first 32 games, a losing proposition for gamblers.
All told, including the four play-in games, "under" hit on 34 occasions while "over" was the right play 29 times and four games ended in a push.
And while it lost a bit of bite after the opening round, overall, dog-and-under was a winner 19 times in 63 games, enough to beat the house.
The notion of hitching your fortunes to a "hot" team proved to be a worthy college basketball betting strategy during the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut, which won and covered five straight games in five consecutive nights to win the Big East Tournament prior to March Madness, then covered four of five during the Big Dance to reach the championship game.
Championship titlist Butler closed out its regular season with nine consecutive straight-up wins, six of those against the spread, and continued to reward backers in the NCAA Tournament by covering all five of its games before failing to beat the spread in its championship showdown against UConn, which opened the season as a 75/1 shot in futures.
Even after 67 games were played, there was one bet left to be decided. But it was hardly a nail-biter as Connecticut's Kemba Walker, the overwhelming 3/4 favorite to win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award, did just that, ending the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament on a positive note for favorite players who otherwise suffered through a difficult Big Dance.
So now, with a new appreciation for dogs—and not just because the Huskies and Bulldogs met in the title game--it's a time for gamblers to review and plan a college basketball betting strategy for next season.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
