We're not even sure there'll be a season this year but under the assumption that owners and players aren't greedy or stupid enough not to come to an agreement, NFL betting aficionados are gearing up for the April 28 Draft, a parade of talent that innovative sportsbooks have turned into the first bet of the 2011 season even if there is no 2011 season.
Sportsbooks are offering odds on which player will be chosen first, an open question in a year where need may outweigh talent for many of those clubs at the top of the lottery. That shouldn't be the case for Carolina, which chooses first in this year's NFL Draft. The Panthers desperately need a quarterback but will it be Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton of Auburn, the solid 4/5 favorite to be the top pick, or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, the 2/1 second choice who looked very good showing off his skills at a Pro Day? Marcell Dareus, 5/1, a defensive tackle from Alabama, seems to have overtaken Auburn DT Nick Fairley, 8/1, if Carolina confounds the "experts" and decides to go in another direction.
Other players who have a shot to go first—though not a very good one—include LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson, 10/1; Georgia wide receiver A. J. Green, 10/1; Texas A&M DE/OLB Vonn Miller, 12/1; and North Carolina DE/OLB Robert Quinn, 15/1. But really, the Panthers are almost certain to choose a quarterback. The question is whether they'll opt for Newton, who has Michael Vick type talent but could also be compared to Vince Young, or Gabbert, a more traditional, drop-back quarterback.
Operators of sportsbooks understand that while offering a wager on which player will be taken first in the draft is intriguing, you need more than that to maintain the draft day interest of all but the most ardent of sports betting fans. With that in mind, many sportsbooks also have prices on which player will be taken second in the draft. The Broncos hold the No. 2 pick but with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow in Denver, quarterback is not a concern.
The Broncos finished last in the NFL with just 23 sacks last season so the expectation is that Denver will look for a pass rusher. Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos' quarterback menace, returns from injury but Denver likely will look to fortify its defensive line, especially now that Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan have been released.
Marcel Dareus is the even money favorite to be drafted second over Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, 5/2, who has a worrisome knee and did not excel on Pro Day. Patrick Peterson, 4/1, is another possibility although, like quarterback, cornerback is not a pressing need.
This draft is heavy on defensive talent, especially at end, and there's no doubt that more defensive players than offensive players—the source of a wager in previous seasons—will be taken in this year's first round. So some enterprising sportsbooks are offering an index bet on just how many defensive players will go in Round 1.
It's 25/1 that 12 or fewer defensive players are chosen in the first round; 6/1 that 13-15 are picked; 2/1 that 16-18 go in Round 1; 7/5 that the number of defensive players picked in the opening round is 19-21; 5/2 that 22-24 are chosen; and 15/1 that 25 or more defensive players are picked among the first 32 selections.
NFL betting devotees also can invest in an over/under bet on how many defensive ends go in the first round. The total is set at 13 1/2 with "under" listed as the narrow -130 favorite (bet $130 to win $100) and "over" quoted at -110.
The price is -150 that at least one running back is chosen in Round 1 of the draft but gamblers who think otherwise can take +110 (bet $100 to win $110) that nary a single ball-carrier is selected in the initial 32 picks.
And finally, there's a proposition on whether "Mr. Irrelevant," the last player chosen in the draft, plays offense, defense or is a kicker. Since the term was coined in 1976, 22 offensive players, 12 defensive players and two kickers have been chosen lasting the draft. However, since 2000, the ratio is 5-5-1. So, it's -120 that the 2011 Mr. Irrelevant plays offense, -120 that he plays defense and +1000 that he's a kicker.
Now, NFL betting fans have a reason to watch the draft from start to finish.
