Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness hero Shackleford are headed for a rubber match at Belmont Park, June 11, but that doesn't mean that Belmont Stakes betting is just a two-horse race. There won't be the bulky 19-horse field that Animal Kingdom dominated at Churchill Downs or even the 14-horse field that Shackleford beat at Pimlico but this year's Belmont Stakes field should have both enough quantity (10-13 horses) and quality to make the final jewel of the Triple Crown a challenge for horse racing betting fans.
The first thing that stands out about the Belmont is its distance, an agonizingly long mile and a half. Seemingly, the 12 furlongs would benefit Animal Kingdom, who closed resolutely to run down the front-running Shackleford in the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby and was gaining ground on that same horse before running out of track in the slightly shorter mile and three-sixteenths Preakness. But "pace makes race," as the old adage goes and some believe that the Belmont's longer distance will play into the hands of Shackleford jockey Jesus Castanon who will be able to slow down the pace, providing his 3-year-old with the slow fractions necessary to fend off the closers.
That's just what happened in the Preakness where, after an opening quarter in :22.69, the second (:24.18), third (:25.14) and fourth quarters (:25.21) were run in successively slower times. It was just the opposite in the Kentucky Derby where, after a first quarter mile in :23.24, the subsequent splits were :25.39, :24.77 and :24.09. "Pace makes race" indeed.
Figuring out which type of pace we'll have in the Belmont is the first handicapping challenge. If the pace is tepid, Animal Kingdom will have to be nearer to the front which could diminish his final run. If the pace is brisk, Shackleford, who prefers to run on or near the lead, is not likely to be around to contest the outcome at the finish.
The key missing ingredient in the Preakness was pressure, as the early pacesetters had no one at their throats as they approached and rounded the final turn. Nehro played that crucial role in the Kentucky Derby where he finished a game second and, after skipping the Preakness, is back to challenge Animal Kingdom and Shackleford in the Belmont Stakes. Nehro is a sort of "tweener" to Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, neither a dead closer nor a front runner but, if we're to believe his fine Derby performance, a stalker, that is, a horse who has the requisite speed to stay close enough to the pace to be in a position to threaten in the stretch but not so close to it as to be burned up by it.
No wonder Nehro has become a "wiseguy" pick for the Belmont Stakes.
Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Nehro should dominate this year's Belmont Stakes betting but just as this isn't a two horse race, it isn't a three horse race either.
Mucho Macho Man is another horse who ran in both the Derby and Preakness who is under consideration for the Belmont. Mucho Macho Man finished sixth in the Preakness despite losing his left front shoe. The colt lost his right front shoe during the running of the Louisiana Derby. I guess it's true what they say: It's hard to get good fitting shoes.
Isn't He Perfect, who was ninth in the Preakness, also is a possibility for the Belmont.
Like Nehro, Master of Hounds (fifth), Santiva (sixth), Brilliant Speed (seventh) and Stay Thirsty (12th) all were given a breather, passing on the Preakness after competing in the Derby. Fresher than either Animal Kingdom or Shackleford, (or Mucho Macho Man or Isn't He Perfect, for that matter) one or more of them could be factors in the Belmont.
Alternation, a colt that raced in neither the Derby nor the Preakness, nevertheless could make his presence felt in the Belmont. Alternation is coming off a victory in the Peter Pan Stakes, a nine furlong race that has been used as a successful prep for the Belmont by horses such as A.P. Indy and Danzig Connection.
As the race approaches, many enterprising sportsbooks will bolster their Belmont Stakes gambling menus by adding proposition wagers such as an over/under on the final time and an index bet on the margin of victory. But the race is intriguing and potentially rewarding enough on its own merit that most Belmont Stakes betting enthusiasts won't need any encouragement to participate.
