Animal Kingdom was the 20/1 upset winner of the Kentucky Derby, May 7 but Preakness betting fans eying another big payday will have to settle for a much smaller return should that 3-year-old colt capture the second jewel in the Triple Crown at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, May 21.
Indeed, the Preakness, which at a mile and three-sixteenths is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, brings a different set of handicapping variables to a horse racing betting scenario that is fraught with uncertainty.
Any analysis of the Preakness must start with Animal Kingdom, whose $43.80 winning price for $2 does not even begin to explain how a horse by a Brazilian stallion out of a German mare, who was making his first start on dirt became the first horse in 55 years to win the Run for the Roses off a six-week layoff and just the fifth horse since 1900 to capture the Derby off four or fewer starts.
Of course, none of that will matter after Animal Kingdom's well-timed two and three-quarter length victory in a bulky 19-horse Kentucky Derby field that, admittedly, wasn't considered stellar before the race and, a tardy two minutes and two seconds later, didn't change many opinions regarding the overall quality of the field.
Animal Kingdom, who prior to the Derby never had gone off at higher than 3/1 odds in any of his four previous starts, will be a lower priced favorite than that in the Preakness, not a bad thing given that public betting choice has won 69 of 135 times. What's more, some enterprising Las Vegas sportsbooks already have the odds at just +600 (bet $100 to win $600) that Animal Kingdom not only wins the Preakness but also adds the Belmont Stakes to his resume, June 11, to become the sport's first Triple Crown winner in 31 years. Skeptics lay -800 (bet $800 to win $100) that Animal Kingdom does not win the Triple Crown.
A dominating performance in the Kentucky Derby usually dramatically reduces the size of the field for the Preakness Stakes but it appears that there are enough doubters to ensure that Animal Kingdom will have plenty of competition at the Old Hilltop.
Although trainers and owners are famously capricious about committing to any race, the second, third and fourth place finishers in the Derby, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford, all appear headed to the Preakness. Nehro now has been second in his last three starts and surely appears to be a legitimate contender but it's difficult to see how he makes up the nearly three length difference with Animal Kingdom given that he had a dream trip at Churchill Downs while the winner was forced wide on both turns and experienced some bumping.
Mucho Macho Man has been in the money in eight of nine career starts and should be right there, ready to pounce, if Animal Kingdom runs into any trouble. Preakness betting fans who back Mucho Macho Man do so knowing that he is a June 15 foal, will not really turns 3-years old until after the Belmont Stakes and as a youngster, has a license to improve significantly from race-to-race.
Shackleford held up reasonably well after setting the pace in the Kentucky Derby and could be out in front at Pimlico, a course that is far friendlier to speed than is Churchill Downs. On the other hoof, Shackleford is unlikely to be able to get away with the pedestrian fractions (an opening half-mile in :48.6 seconds) that gave him a breather in Louisville. The Preakness, because of its shorter distance and diminished stretch run, almost always has a faster pace than the Derby.
A fast pace might be the tonic for Derby favorite Dialed In, who finished a disappointing eighth at Churchill Downs. With a $5.5 million bonus available if the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes winner also takes the Preakness, Dialed In is headed to Baltimore, as well.
Horses that didn't run in the Derby but are possible for the Preakness include Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Concealed Identity, DanceCity, Flashpoint, King Congie, Mr. Commons, Norman Asbjornson, Prime Cut, Sway Away and The Factor.
The notion is that these horses will be fresher than those who ran two weeks earlier, a strategy that was effective three times in the last decade when Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) who won the Preakness without racing in the Kentucky Derby.
While the winner of the Kentucky Derby also has captured the Preakness in seven of the last 14 years, it looks as though winning the middle jewel in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown is no sure thing for either Animal Kingdom or horse racing betting fans.
