Some NFL betting wonks believe that the NFL labor dispute, which shortened practice time and delayed free agent signings this year, could have an impact on the first weekend of the regular season. The theory espouses that teams with continuity in their coaching staffs and stability at the key quarterback position will have an edge early in the season.
That hypothesis quickly will be tested when teams play their opening games of the season, Sept. 8-12.
From a betting perspective, a good start is essential for the player, too, not just because it builds confidence but because it also helps build a bigger bankroll. Wagering from a position of strength always is an advantage and it's an accepted gambling principle that it's easier to make money when you have money.
With that in mind, let's take a look for some trends and tendencies among the slate of games for the first weekend of the 2011 NFL campaign:
Thursday, Sept. 8
New Orleans (+4 1/2) at Green Bay: The last two Super Bowl champions meet in Green Bay, where the Saints covered (-2) as a road favorite in their last visit to Wisconsin in 2006. Coming early in the season, frigid weather conditions won't be a factor so expect elite quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees to air it out in a free scoring affair. In fact, the opening total for the game, 45 1/2, is the highest of the opening weekend.
Sunday, Sept. 11
Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore: The Ravens inability to win the division has cost them dearly in the post-season where they've been on the road for seven consecutive playoff games. But the Steelers have done very well against the Ravens, going 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) their last six meetings, including covering their last three visits to Baltimore. Pittsburgh was 6-1 ATS versus division opponents last year while Baltimore was just 2-5.
Detroit (+3) at Tampa Bay: Both the Lions and the Buccaneers showed vast improvement last year over the previous season but Detroit has covered four of the last five games in this series. What's more, over the last 31 years, the Lions are 19-12 ATS in season openers while the Bucs are just 11-19-1 ATS.
Atlanta (-1 1/2) at Chicago: The Bears have covered five of the last seven games, including three of the last four at Soldier Field, in this matchup ofplayoff teams. But the Falcons have covered seven of their last nine games as road favorites and are 18-12-1 ATS in openers.
Buffalo (+7) at Kansas City: The Bills have covered the last four meetings between these teams, including three straight at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Chiefs are 10-3-1 ATS in home openers over the last 30 years and are 11-4 overall as first week favorites.
Indianapolis (+3) at Houston: You don't get points with the Colts that often (just twice last year) but Indianapolis has failed to cover four of its last five visits to Houston and the Texans actually have the better pointspread record within the AFC South over the past four years.
Philadelphia (-5) at St. Louis: Philadelphia has covered eight of the last nine meetings with St. Louis.
Cincinnati (+4 1/2) at Cleveland: The Browns have covered just two of their last 10 home openers but neither of these teams inspires wagering confidence.
Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville: The Titans have the better overall pointspread record within the AFC South and Tennessee has covered 12 of its last 19 meetings with Jacksonville but the Jaguars have covered seven of their last nine home openers.
NY Giants (-3 1/2) at Washington: The Giants have covered seven of their last 10 games versus the Redskins, including four of New York's last five visits to Washington.
Carolina (+5) at Arizona: The Cardinals have covered just one of their last seven home openers and are 2-5 ATS their last seven games versus the Panthers.
Seattle (+5 1/2) at San Francisco: Since 1980, the Seahawks have been just 5-13 as opening week underdogs and have failed to cover four of their last five visits to San Francisco.
Minnesota (+9) at San Diego: The biggest line of the week is a reflection of a disparity in expectations more than any recent trends.
Let the NFL betting wars begin.
(Note: Sunday night and Monday night game betting trends will be addressed in separate articles).
