The irony, both for NBA teams and NBA betting fans, is that after an 82-game regular season that eliminates just 14 of the league's 30 teams, the playoffs offer a new set of challenges for athletes and gamblers. In fact, the post-season requires a different skill set, with savvy bettors fully aware that what might have been successful strategy in the autumn and winter may have no wagering relevance in the spring and early summer.
It is a further irony that a one game home court advantage in a series, an asset that teams play six months to achieve, is decidedly less of an advantage in the post-season. Here's why: While enthusiastic fans and a slab of hardwood that a team sees only a few times a year may have little impact on professional basketball players, travel does. Playing three games in four nights or four games in six nights while crossing one, two or three time zones can disrupt a human being's interior clock, causing fatigue. Tired teams are easily beaten.
However, after the visiting team makes its initial trip to the team that holds the home court advantage in the playoffs, the two teams have identical travel schedules. What's more, because the NBA needs to space out games to place as many games on the weekend to accommodate television during its biggest sports viewing days, the element of fatigue is removed from the NBA betting equation.
Another thing that separates the NBA playoffs from the NBA regular season is intensity. Let's face it, during an 82-game regular season every player on every team isn't going to give a maximum effort in every game. Human nature being what it is, good teams won't always be motivated against lesser opponents. But the playoffs, literally, are a whole new season.
So, if you were shrewd enough to pick up a few crumpets during the regular season by dissecting the schedule and choosing "sandwich" games (a game of lesser interest in the middle of a couple of high-profile games) where one team may not have been as emotionally involved, don't count on that angle holding up during the playoffs.
The Bulls, which are on track to head into the playoffs with the best record in the Eastern Conference, are an example of a team that got toasted in a "sandwich" game. On Feb. 17, Chicago, -2, beat and covered against San Antonio, the team with the best record in the Western Conference. On Feb. 24, the Bulls, +3, defeated and covered versus the Heat, a potent team built to win an NBA Championship this year. But sandwiched in between those two playoff-rich foes was a game against lowly Toronto (20-52 as of March 25). Not only didn't the Bulls, -8 1/2, cover, but Chicago lost outright.
The intensity players demonstrate during the NBA Playoffs is obvious in another calculable way, stingier defense. For NBA betting fans, especially those who enjoy assaulting sportsbooks with over/under bets, that usually translates into lower scores. Of course, oddsmakers know this too so it's not unusual to see playoff totals four or five points lower than you'd see during the regular season. For instance, when the Lakers and Jazz met for the last time during the regular season a year ago, the game total was 202 1/2. A month later, when LA and Utah met in a playoff game, the over/under was 198 1/2.
With some time still remaining in the regular season and several positions still to be determined, basketball betting fans can indulge in futures, a bet that can provide the gambler with valuable options, including situations where you can bet one team on the money line while holding a future book ticket on the other.
The defending champion Lakers, who opened the season as 3/1 favorites, now are down to 9/5. Two teams have better records than LA but the feeling around sportsbooks is that with Kobe Bryant and a tall and talented frontcourt, the Purple and Gold still are the team to beat.
The Heat, which opened at 25/1 but quickly was adjusted to a favored 7/4 when free agents LeBron James and Chris Bosh went to Miami, have slipped a bit to 5/2. The team still hasn't jelled as many expected. The Celtics, also 5/2, have a veteran club that extended LA to seven games in last year's NBA Finals. At 7/2, the Spurs also are in the hunt, as are the Bulls at 5/1.
It's double digits on anyone else, including 12/1 on the Mavericks and Magic and 15/1 on the Thunder. Looking for value? Try the Nuggets, who have seemingly benefited from a trade that sent Carmelo Anthony packing and are a ripe 50/1 in NBA Playoff betting futures.
