The 2011 Run for the Roses will take little more than 120 seconds to complete but before the first leg of the Triple Crown is run at Churchill Downs, May 7, more than 120 days of Kentucky Derby betting will have taken place. It is a measure of the enduring appeal of America's most famous horse race that so much time and money is spent on an event that lasts all of two minutes.
Some sportsbooks have had Kentucky Derby future book prices posted since November, when UncleMo won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and stamped himself as the colt to beat at Louisville this year. But just getting to the Kentucky Derby is a difficult task, as evidenced by the 372 horses who were nominated to the 2010 Derby, versus the 20 that actually participated in the mile and a quarter classic. Many can't carry their speed a distance of ground; others lack the iron will required of a champion; even more are just too slow; some are injured.
It is against this daunting background of frustration and failure that thoroughbred racing enthusiasts and sports betting fans look to the Kentucky Derby future book for redemption. Betting now, months in advance, has its inherent risks but prices also are higher and the rewards are greater. No guts, no glory.
It's early but let's take a look at the major contenders:
UncleMo (4/1): The logical favorite after dispatching nine foes in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by more than four lengths while earning a lofty 108 Beyer Speed Figure in that November race. But 4/1 may be too short for many bettors, especially those technical handicappers who point out that since 1978, only one Juvenile champion, Street Sense in 2006, has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. UncleMo is scheduled to make his 2011 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, March 12.
To Honor and Serve (7/1): Would have been nice to get this one at his opening future book price of 175/1 but three straight wins, including one in the mile and an eighth Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, Nov. 27, make him an attractive prospect. Look for him in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, Feb. 26.
Tapizar (8/1): He opened at 125/1 and was 60/1 in December but that price vanished after Tapizar's victory in the Sham Stakes in January. Has lots of speed but must learn to relax. The colt appears headed to the Robert B. Lewis, Feb. 12 but could await the San Felipe in March.
Boys At Toscanova (15/1): Second in the BC Juvenile after winning the Hopeful. He was scratched from his 2011 debut in the Holy Bull Stakes, never a good sign, although trainer Rick Dutrow said "he wasn't showing his usual high energy" which is better than an injury.
Dialed In (20/1): A victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at GulfstreamPark, Jan. 30 puts him squarely in the Derby mix…for now
Rogue Romance (22/1): Both his victories have come on the grass. He did try the dirt in the BC Juvenile at Churchill Downs, suffering a wide trip before finishing a well-beaten third behind UncleMo and Boys At Toscanova. Given those circumstances, 22/1 doesn't seem generous enough, does it?
Astrology (25/1): Been first, second or third in five career starts, including most recently a runner-up performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club in late November. Connections are mulling the risky strategy of racing him just once—in the Santa Anita Derby, April 9—before the Kentucky Derby.
Santiva (25/1): Broke through with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club, beating Astrology and now looks to validate that win with a strong performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Brethren (35/1): Two-for-two but hasn't faced anyone, yet. A lesser known stablemate of UncleMo, he'll face stakes competition in February.
Elite Alex (35/1): Broke his maiden and then finished second in an allowance race. If you take this one it's on faith alone.
Gourmet Dinner (40/1): Steady performer with four wins in seven starts and the cash on hand to make the starting gate if earnings are the only factor. Finished third in the Holy Bull Stakes, Jan. 30.
Soldat (40/1): Runner-up in BC Juvenile Turf, they switched him to the dirt and he won an allowance race by almost 11 lengths. Will be tested for real in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Feb. 26.
Pluck (45/1): All three wins on the grass. Can he, will he, make the switch?
The race may be months away but Kentucky Derby betting is off and running.
