Risks, Rewards in Kentucky Derby Future Book Betting

The first Saturday in May is still months away but horse racing betting fans know that a future book wager made now could reap big dividends when the Triple Crown opens with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, May 1.

Once called the “winter book,” the Kentucky Derby future book offers players a chance to make a substantial score, often on a horse many lengths better than his odds. The downside is that the wager is fraught with peril and uncertainty and considered by many a fool’s errand. Admittedly, there are no guarantees that the horse you bet will even get a chance to compete in the Run for the Roses. Some horses are injured; others can’t carry their speed over a distance of ground; most simply are too slow.

Take the example of Sir Gaylord as a cautionary tale. The half-brother to Secretariat opened at 20/1 in futures but was 3/5 a day before the 1962 Kentucky Derby. However, that overlay self-destructed when Sir Gaylord suffered a career-ending injury 24 hours before the race and was retired. Those who held future book tickets on Sir Gaylord must have watched in disbelief as Decidedly, a colt that Sir Gaylord had beaten in the Everglades Stakes weeks earlier, won the 1962 Kentucky Derby.

But for bettors willing to accept these challenges of nature, the potential for profit is enormous. One need only go back to last year when Mine That Bird scored a stunning upset in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50/1. Nice price but you could have had 200/1 on that colt in futures. A better example of a quality horse at a bargain price is Winning Colors, the winner of the 1988 Kentucky Derby and the last filly to capture the Run for the Roses. The Hall of Fame member paid $8.80 for her neck triumph over Forty Niner, a far cry from her 100/1 opening future book price.

Now that you know the potential risks and rewards, let’s look at the top contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Opening and current sportsbook future book odds (as of Feb. 16) are in parentheses):

Lookin At Lucky (45/1, 7/1): Last year’s 2-year-old champion won’t make his seasonal debut until March but already there are concerns that his excellent synthetic form (five wins from six starts) may not translate to a victory on the traditional dirt course at Churchill Downs.

Buddy’s Saint (250/1, 11/1): Never has had a horse beat him to the line in three starts and he’s won on dirt and around two turns. Didn’t run his first race until September, which probably helps his Derby chances.

Dublin (40/1, 14/1): That’s a pretty short price for a colt that lost his last two starts by a total of 16 lengths. But he’s worked strongly since returning from surgery and has a pedigree that boasts of distance prowess.

Jackson Bend (150/1, 20/1): Finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream after a wide trip. He’s now in the barn of trainer Nick Zito, who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Stamina could be a question.

Rule (200/1, 22/1): Has won four straight, most recently taking the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Hasn’t beaten much yet but speed always is dangerous and you have to like the way he’s been relaxing on the lead.

Conveyance (200/1, 25/1): After three wins in as many starts, has left California’s synthetic surfaces for the dirt of Oaklawn Park where his racing schedule was put out of whack by the postponement of the Southwest Stakes.

Noble’s Promise (125/1, 30/1): Twice finished behind Lookin At Lucky in 2009 but this is a different year and 2-year-olds can improve—or regress—dramatically over the course of a winter. Getting closer to his first start of the year but his pedigree is more sprint-oriented than suited for distance.

Super Saver (275/1, 30/1): Won by five lengths over the Churchill Downs oval in his last start as a 2-year-old so his 3-year-old debut is eagerly anticipated.

Eskendereya (100/1, 35/1): Both of his victories have come on natural dirt so there’s plenty of potential for improvement.

Of course, there’s a chance, maybe even a pretty good chance, that none of the colts mentioned above will win this year’s Kentucky Derby. It’s still early enough for a horse to come from nowhere and leap into Derby contention. It’s also early enough for enterprising gamblers to find a rewarding overlay or two in their Kentucky Derby future book betting.