There's a school of thought that when it comes to NFL betting, the opening week of the season is the easiest one for gamblers to beat sportsbooks. The assumption is that a number of factors, including NFL teams being cautious with their key players and hiding their true nature during the preseason, conspire to thwart oddsmakers, making it difficult for the numbers crunchers to make a clear evaluation of teams for the first week of the season.
The reality is that, except for the Super Bowl, no week of NFL action is as closely scrutinized and analyzed as the opening weekend of the NFL. Still, NFL betting aficionados will want to take their shots, if only to get a good start, build a bankroll, and begin working from a position of strength. It's always easier to make money when you have money.
With that in mind, let's take a look for some trends and tendencies among the slate of games for the first weekend of the 2010 NFL campaign:
Thursday, Sept. 9
Minnesota (+4 1/2) at New Orleans: This is a rematch of last season's NFC Championship game, won by the Saints, 31-28, but covered by the Vikings (+4). Once again, Minnesota's seemingly ageless Brett Favre will take on New Orleans' gunslinger Drew Brees in a battle of elite quarterbacks. Incentive and trends are with the Vikings, who have covered five straight games against the Saints, including four in a row in New Orleans. Oh, and there's that little matter of revenge.
Sunday, Sept. 12
Miami (+3) at Buffalo: It's easy to think of the Dolphins as an up and coming team, maybe even a playoff contender, and dismiss the Bills as an AFC East doormat with dismal prospects. That hasn't been the recent history. In fact, over the past four seasons not only does Buffalo boast a better straight up (SU) record, 27-37 to 25-39 for Miami, but the Bills also have the superior record against the spread (ATS), 34-29-1 to 27-34-3. What's more, Buffalo has covered five of its last six at home against Miami.
Cincinnati (+5 1/2) at New England: Surprise, surprise, the Bengals have covered seven of their last nine meetings with the Patriots, including three of their last four at Gillette Stadium. If last year is any indication, the key here is that Cincinnati is the underdog. The Bengals were 0-8 as favorites in 2009 and 6-2 as underdogs. New England has been a consistent pointspread winner but the numbers don't lie: As a home favorite the last five seasons, the Patriots are four games under .500 ATS.
Green Bay (-2 1/2) at Philadelphia: The Packers have a huge edge at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers over newly anointed Kevin Kolb but the Eagles usually have found a way to reward their backers in this series, covering seven of the last nine meetings between the two NFC clubs, including three straight in Philadelphia. It doesn't happen very often but since 2000, the Eagles are 7-4-2 as home underdogs.
Arizona (-4) at St. Louis: Thank the retirement of Arizona QB Kurt Warner for only having to lay four points with the Cardinals, a team that has handled the Rams with relative ease, covering four of their last five meetings and beating the pointspread in eight of their last 12 games in St. Louis. Arizona is 14-10 ATS within the NFC West the last four years while St. Louis is 7-17 ATS. It could be a difficult debut for rookie Rams QB Sam Bradford.
Dallas (-3) at Washington: The Cowboys have done well visiting the nation's capital, covering nine of their last 12 meetings with the Redskins. The road team has won five straight in this series so it could be a different story when Washington visits Dallas, Dec. 19.
Baltimore (+3) at NY Jets: The Ravens have covered six of the last seven meetings in this series, including three in a row on the road and are 20-11-1, overall, versus the spread the last two seasons. It's not difficult to imagine that rugged Baltimore defense harassing New York QB Mark Sanchez into a couple of mistakes.
San Diego (-5 1/2) at Kansas City: The Chargers have so dominated the AFC West the last four seasons (20-4 SU, 15-8-1 ATS) so it seems easy to dismiss the Chiefs. But Kansas City is no slouch in Arrowhead Stadium where the Chiefs have beaten the number versus the Chargers in eight of their last 11 games there.
Odds and Ends: Atlanta (-2 1/2) has covered its last four games versus Pittsburgh…Cleveland (+2 1/2), which opens at TampaBay, has failed to cover five straight opening season games.
