When it comes to Kentucky Derby betting, the best strategy is to try to ascertain which horse will race best on the first Saturday in May, not which 3-year-old colt is the best racehorse now.
Put another way, preparation sometimes can trump talent when it comes to choosing which horse will stand in the Churchill Downs winner's circle draped in a garland of red roses on May 1.
The prevailing wisdom is that a 3-year-old must have a good foundation--which translates into some useful race work as a 2-year-old--but also be lightly campaigned at the age of three in order to be fresh and fit for the Run for the Roses. Generally, savvy bettors see that as a colt that raced in stakes company as a juvenile, preferably with some success, hasn't experienced any unexpected layoffs, been forced to miss a workout or, far worse, a race, due to inclement weather or some injury or physical ailment, and seems to be improving with each effort.
The old adage is that a good horse can come from anywhere but sophisticated bettors usually look to the results of five major prep races, the Florida Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes, or the Arkansas Derby, for the next Kentucky Derby winner. Spaced three to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, each of these highly regarded prep races is run at a mile and an-eighth, or an eighth of a mile less than the classic mile and a quarter distance of the Derby.
Gamblers will want to see their horse moving forward in one of these five races, not necessarily winning, but improving and showing a willingness to tackle the extra eighth of a mile of the Kentucky Derby. Of course, because of pace considerations, finishing with determination at nine furlongs is no guarantee that a horse will do the same at a mile and a quarter but, to paraphrase Damon Runyon, "that's the way to bet." Remember you want your horse to peak at the Kentucky Derby, not three, four or five weeks before it.
Many handicappers place an emphasis on breeding, looking for a pedigree that promises stamina. This is a valid concept in theory but just as with human beings, some horses don't live up to their parent's lofty expectations while others exceed them. At best, pedigree handicapping for the Kentucky Derby is a risky and imprecise undertaking.
In addition to preparedness and pedigree, two more factors to consider are running style and tactics. So, although the 1,234-foot stretch at Churchill Downs is one of the longest in North America, horses rarely come from far off the pace to win the Kentucky Derby. But if coming from far off the pace is difficult, so is winning the Kentucky Derby on the front end.
If history is a guide, the winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby will be a horse that stalks the early leaders, maintaining a positional advantage so that he can time his winning move to catch the front-runners as they begin to tire and still have enough in the tank to repel the late closers.
That stalking running style also has an advantage in what typically is a bulky field, often featuring the maximum number of 20 horses. Being close to the pace (but not engaged in it) relieves a horse of having to circle a large group of tiring runners or, just as damaging, having to contend with an unrealistically fast pace set by overmatched sprinters that have little hope of being around at the finish. So, while there have been 39 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby by leading from gate to wire, just one, War Emblem in 2002, accomplished the feat in the last 23 years.
Another factor to consider is luck. The horse you like may draw a poor post, getting saddled with a ground-robbing outside position or having to start from the extreme inside, where traffic always is a concern. It could rain, rendering the track sloppy or muddy.
The final and, what some professional players would tell you is the most important factor to consider, is value. It's not just a question of whether your horse can win the race but whether he's worth a bet at his price.
The question of value is one we'll consider next time when we look at the major contenders for your Kentucky Derby betting dollars.
