The first legitimate super fight of the New Year, the welterweight showdown between WBA champion "Sugar" Shane Mosley and WBA 147-pound title holder Andre Berto at the MandalayBayEventsCenter in Las Vegas, Jan. 30, should also be the first major boxing betting event of 2010. HBO will handle the broadcast duties but unlike many other championship encounters, this one is not a pay-per-view affair.
Mosley (46-5, 39 KOs) opened as a modest -180 sportsbook favorite (bet $180 to win $100) while Berto (25-0, 19 KOs) is listed as the live +155 underdog (bet $100 to win $155) to leave the ring wearing both title belts.
The total on the scheduled 12-round bout is 10 1/2 rounds with gamblers who believe the fight will reach the midway point of round 11 asked to lay -290. Bettors who prefer the "under" take back +240.
Bettors who don't like carrying a stopwatch also can wager on whether or not the fight goes the full 12-round distance. "Yes" is -200 while "No" is +150.
The fighters are saying all the requisite things to drum up interest and sports betting business.
"I've forgotten more about the fight game than he knows and the world will see that in January," contended Mosley.
"Shane Mosley made me chase him for a while but he won't be able to run when we get into the ring on January 30 and I can't wait," retorted Berto.
While sportsbooks give Mosley the edge, boxing betting fans will have to decide if the sure Hall of Famer, now 38 years old and a full year removed from his latest fight, still has enough in the tank to hold off Berto, 26, a rising star with solid punching power. On the other glove, gamblers must weight whether Berto, who never has faced anyone of Mosley's quality, can withstand the pressure and beat Mosley on such a big stage. Another question will be whether the bout will be a slugfest, which presumably would favor Berto, or a tactical fight, which might play more to Mosley's skills.
Mosley has won seven of his last eight fights dating back to 2005, defeating the likes of Fernando Vargas (twice) Luis Collazo and Ricardo Mayorga. But his most recent outing, a ninth round stoppage of then welterweight world champion Antonio Margarito in January of 2009, may rank as his most spectacular victory. That's saying a lot for the man who, in a 16-year career, has won five world titles and twice defeated Oscar de la Hoya.
Berto, who first came to the attention of boxing fans as a member of the 2004 Haitian Olympic team, owns victories over Steve Forbes, Collazo (like Mosley via unanimous decision) and Juan Urango. The Florida native captured the WBC world welterweight title with a seventh round TKO of Miguel Angel Rodriguez and has since defended his title three times.
Tactically, if Mosley's skills haven't deteriorated in the year since he dismantled Margarito, the fight plan should be the same: Use his superior boxing ability and experience again quality opponents to frustrate Berto.
Befitting the much younger man, Berto has better hand speed and probably has more power than Mosley, though the latter does not lack for punching prowess. While Berto's knockout numbers are impressive, his last three fights have gone the distance, a function of Berto's recent penchant for grabbing after throwing a couple of punches. Many experts believe that for Berto to win he will have to be busy, keeping the pressure on Mosley by throwing a lot of punches and wearing down the older man. Allowing Mosley to rest in clinches probably would benefit Mosley.
In addition to straight and total wagering, some sportsbooks also are offering a series of props on the bout. For example, bettors can choose the one of five possible ways the fight can end:
Mosley by decision+ 160
Mosley by KO, TKO or DQ+ 225
Berto by decision+ 240
Berto by KO, TKO or DQ+ 700
Draw or technical draw+2000
Gamblers also can try predicting the exact round in which a fighter scores a knockout, a longshot wager that offers odds from 16/1 to 66/1 to the truly clairvoyant (or crazy). Less demanding, but with smaller payouts, is group round betting, where a bettor gets a fighter in a trio of rounds. For instance, Mosley by KO, TKO or DQ in rounds 4-6 is worth +1000 while Berto in rounds 10-12 returns +2500.
It's something to consider.
Clearly, the first big fight of 2010 is a big opportunity for boxing betting fans, as well.
