BETTING COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES

College football betting comes to an end (at least for a few months) with a series of bowl games and, as has been our custom over the last several seasons, while we're not sure if we'll go out with a bang or a whimper, at least we're willing to take our best shot at building a Super Bowl bankroll.

As in previous years, we'll compare the power ratings of Seattle based lab rat Jeff Sagarin, a USA TODAY contributor whose numbers are used to help calculate the BCS Standings, and Las Vegas' esteemed sportsbook operators, who take a more nuanced view of the betting line. We're looking for discrepancies between Sagarin's raw data, which is void of interpretation, and the Vegas line, which incorporates such things as motivation, playing style and match-ups into the pointspread number:

Dec. 22

LAS VEGAS BOWL, Las Vegas, Nevada

Utah (+15) vs. Boise State: Both teams were good against the spread (ATS) with Utah posting a 7-4-1 pointspread record while Boise State was a tick better at 8-4 versus the number but the Broncos were terrific as big favorites, covering spreads of 43 1/2, 40, 38, 34 1/2, 29, 23 and 22. So what's the problem laying more than two touchdowns on Boise State? Sagarin says the teams are a lot closer than that, giving Boise State a rating of 89.29 to 81.70 for Utah. That's a difference of 7.59, meaning you're getting about twice as many points—at least according to Sagarin—as you should. Take Utah plus the points.

Dec. 28

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, Orlando, Florida

NC State (+4) vs. West Virginia: While West Virginia (7-4 ATS) opened as a four-point favorite over NC State (8-3 ATS), the teams are nearly dead-even in the Sagarin Ratings with the Wolfpack (79.12) actually slightly higher than the Mountaineers (79.10). So, to Sagarin's way of thinking, the game should be pick 'em, making the choice obvious. Take NC State plus the points.

INSIGHT BOWL, Tempe, Arizona

Missouri (-3) vs. Iowa: Missouri boasts a Sagarin Rating of 88.32 while Iowa checks in at 79.24, a difference of 9.08. But you only have to lay a field goal, in effect, getting a free touchdown. The Tigers were 7-5 ATS during the regular season while the Hawkeyes were 5-5-1 ATS, giving a bit more of a technical advantage to Missouri. Lay the points with Missouri.

Dec. 30

PINSTRIPLE BOWL, Bronx, New York

Kansas State (pick) vs. Syracuse: With a Sagarin Rating of 76.40, Kansas State is more than a touchdown superior to Syracuse, which has a Sagarin Rating of 70.03, a difference of 6.37 points. The game is at Yankee Stadium, which is sufficiently far from Syracuse to nullify any in-state advantage. The Orange (7-5 ATS) were a little better than the Wildcats (6-6 ATS) versus the number but Kansas State is just the superior team. Bet on Kansas State.

Jan. 01

ROSE BOWL, Pasadena, California

TCU (pick) vs. Wisconsin: This is another game that opened at pick 'em where one team has a significantly higher Sagarin Rating than the other. In this case it's TCU, which checks in at 91.42 to 86.04 for Wisconsin, a difference of 5.38 points. Both teams were 7-5 ATS and each averaged 43.3 points per game. Each team should be motivated—not that Sagarin considers that—but TCU just looks like the stronger play. Take TCU.

Jan. 03

ORANGE BOWL, Miami, Florida

Stanford (-3) vs. Virginia Tech: Stanford (94.21 Sagarin Rating) is 8.63 points better than Virginia Tech (85.58) but the Cardinal opened as just a three-point favorite. Virginia Tech covered 10 of its last 11 games versus the pointspread but Stanford was no slouch, finishing at 7-4 versus the number. Lay the points with Stanford.

Jan. 04

SUGAR BOWL, New Orleans, Louisiana

Arkansas (+2 1/2) vs. Ohio State: According to Sagarin, Arkansas (9-2 ATS), with a rating of 89.79, actually should be a slight favorite over Ohio State (9-2-1 ATS), which has a rating of 87.91. That works out to a four-point swing. Take the points with Arkansas.

Jan. 06

GO DADDY BOWL, Mobile, Alabama

Miami (Ohio) -3 vs. Middle Tennessee State: With a Sagarin Rating more than 12 points higher than MTS (53.78), Miami (65.92) is a college football betting steal at -3. Lay the points with Miami (Ohio).

Jan. 10

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP, Glendale, Arizona

Oregon (+1 1/2) vs. Auburn: It's close but we like Oregon (96.40) getting points from Auburn (94.49) even though the Sagarin Ratings say it should be the other way around. Take the points with Oregon.