Both Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness hero Lookin' at Lucky will sit out the third leg of the Triple Crown but that doesn't mean that Belmont Stakes betting will be any less attractive for gamblers eyeing the 135th running of the race, June 5th.
The absence of two proven winners only widens the field, brings more unpredictability and opens the possibility for a longshot winner of the mile and a half race at New York's historic BelmontPark.
At first blush, the marathon distance of the Belmont Stakes seems to favor Ice Box, the fast finishing second place finisher in the opening leg of the Triple Crown, the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby, May 1. Ice Box, who skipped the May 15 Preakness to aim for this race, made up nearly seven lengths in the sloppy Churchill Downs stretch and seemingly would benefit from the added quarter mile distance of the Belmont.
Not necessarily.
If there's one rule of the turf it is that "pace makes race," a bromide that advises that what happens early in a race usually has a significant impact on what happens later in a race. So don't expect Ice Box to come charging down the stretch at "Big Sandy" if jockeys, wary of tiring out their horses over the long race, set a leisurely pace in order to preserve some of their horse's energy for the stretch duel. Slow fractions up front will be anything but beneficial to a closer such as Ice Box.
In fact, before last year, when Summer Bird came from fourth, the previous eight straight Belmont Stakes were won horses that were no worse than third after a mile-and-a-quarter. Four of those were on the lead at that call. Only two years ago, Da' Tara went right to the front, was never pressured and led all the way, winning by more than five lengths while paying a robust $79.00 for a $2 wager.
But even a speed duel doesn't guarantee you can come from far off the pace and win the Belmont Stakes. Look at 2004 when Smarty Jones and Rock Hard Ten fought through 10 furlongs in a suicidal 2:00 4/5. The horse that picked up the pieces was Birdsong ($74.00) who had gradually improved his position and was second when the serious running began at the top of the stretch.
Given that there may not be much pace in this year's Belmont, First Dude, who finished second in the Preakness and has quality speed, definitely is one to fear.
In between Ice Box's finishing prowess and First Dude's speed are Yawana Twist and Make Music for Me. The former is a stalker who finished fourth in the Preakness while the latter, who was pinched back at the start of the Derby and then eight wide before finishing fourth in Louisville, also has raced well from slightly off the pace.
Stately Victor, who has been rested since finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby after a rough trip, is another horse given a shot at a price in a relatively weak field.
The most intriguing product in what looks like about a 10-horse field is Fly Down, the winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont, May 8. Fly Down, who took the Dwyer by a commanding six lengths and figures to be no worse than the third choice in the betting, is a stablemate of Ice Box and another colt who has the speed to get good position but does not need to be out in front.
Game on Dude, the winner of the Lone Star Derby, will pinch hit for stablemate Lookin' at Lucky and trainer Bob Baffert in the Belmont while Uptowncharlybrown, who ran third in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, also is being pointed toward the Belmont Stakes.
Whether they're working online, at sportsbooks or at the track, Belmont Stakes betting fans know that the Belmont Stakes has yielded some mighty payoffs. In the last decade alone, in addition to "mere" $70 plus winners Da' Tar and Birdsong, there's also Sarava, who returned a race record $142.50 in 2002.
So, while the defection of the Derby and Preakness winners may stamp the 2010 "Test of the Champion" as a race lacking luster or glamour, it's anything but short on wagering appeal, more than enough reason to put Belmont Stakes betting on your "To Do" list.
