The AL Central Division was anything but kind to baseball betting enthusiasts last year…unless they went against those five teams with regularity. In fact, none of the AL Central quintet had a positive ROI (Return on Investment), meaning you couldn't bet any one of them with frequency and expect to make a profit.
Of course, betting against a team can be as valid a betting strategy as betting on a team so let's see if we can't uncover some keys for the upcoming season in last year's betting numbers:
AT THE WINDOWS:
MINNESOTA TWINS (2009 Finish: 87-79, Won AL Central in playoff)
Future Book Odds for 2010: World Series: 25/1, Pennant: 12/1, Division: 7/5
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 57-46, Underdog: 30-33
Home: 49-34, Away: 38-45
Day: 27-32, Night: 60-47
Vs. Left: 28-34, Vs. Right: 59-45
Over/Under: 73-82-11
One-Run Games: 24-21
Sportsbook Buster: The Twins posted an ROI of –40.8 percent in their games against teams from the AL East last year.
Sports Betting Angle: Minnesota had an ROI of -40.5 as a -200 favorite or more last season.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (2009 Finish: 79-83)
Future Book Odds for 2010: World Series: 33/1, Pennant: 16/1, Division: 12/5
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 39-39, Underdog: 40-44
Home: 43-38, Away: 36-45
Day: 27-35, Night: 52-48
Vs. Left: 25-24, Vs. Right: 54-59
Over/Under: 62-96-4
One-Run Games: 19-27
Sportsbook Buster: The White Sox had an ROI of -11.7 percent against teams from the AL West last year.
Sports Betting Angle: At 62-96-4, Chicago was a solid “under” bet last season.
DETROIT TIGERS (2009 Finish: 86-77, Lost AL Central Division in playoff)
Future Book Odds for 2010: World Series: 40/1, Pennant: 18/1, Division: 9/2
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 65-43, Underdog: 21-34
Home: 51-30, Away: 35-47
Day: 33-26, Night: 53-51
Vs. Left: 29-20, Vs. Right: 57-57
Over/Under: 70-86-7
One-Run Games: 28-22
Sportsbook Buster: The Tigers had an ROI of +9.2 percent at home but their ROI on the road was -11.7 percent last year.
Sports Betting Angle: Detroit had an ROI of +9.6 percent against left-handed starters last season.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (2009 Finish: 65-97)
Future Book Odds for 2010: World Series: 100/1, Pennant: 60/1, Division: 50/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 27-31, Underdog: 38-66
Home: 33-48, Away: 32-49
Day: 22-31, Night: 43-66
Vs. Left: 20-36, Vs. Right: 45-61
Over/Under: 76-78-8
One-Run Games: 16-25
Sportsbook Buster: The Royals had an ROI of -17.8 percent at home last year.
Sports Betting Angle: Kansas City had an ROI of -23.9 percent against left-handed pitching last season.
CLEVELAND INDIANS (2009 Finish: 65-97)
Future Book Odds for 2010: World Series: 100/1, Pennant: 50/1, Division: 14/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 31-35, Underdog: 34-62
Home: 35-46, Away: 30-51
Day: 25-34, Night: 40-63
Vs. Left: 17-23, Vs. Right: 48-74
Over/Under: 77-76-9
One-Run Games: 19-21
Sportsbook Buster: Backing the Indians in every game last year would have cost you 17.7 percent of your bankroll.
Sports Betting Angle: Cleveland was a loser in every baseball betting category with a sample of at least six games last season.
ON THE FIELD: This looks like a three-team race with the Twins favored over the White Sox and Tigers. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau anchor a strong middle lineup in Minnesota and the bullpen is solid but starting pitching could be a problem. The Twins probably will have to hit their way into the post-season. The White Sox aren't as potent as the Twins on offense (not that they're bad) but the rotation finally has an ace in Jake Peavy and complimentary arms in Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks before turning it over to closer Bobby Jenks. Chicago has a shot of knocking off Minnesota. The Tigers traded away a dynamic player in Curtis Granderson and are trying to walk the tightrope of remaining relevant while rebuilding. The acquisition of a couple of fresh arms to a potentially strong pitching staff might let Detroit hide some of its deficiencies. The Royals will not challenge the Twins, White Sox or Tigers but should be good enough to avoid the division basement. Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke heads a modest rotation that can turn over the ball to solid closer Joakim “The Mexicutioner” Soria. The addition of Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel gives the lineup more punch. The Indians clearly are trying to rebuild, acquiring young talent that may bring dividends for several seasons. It could be a cold summer on the Lake.
