A New Year brings new hope, even for the sometimes pessimistic sports betting fan. Of course, hope will have a better chance of turning into reality in 2011 if gamblers resolve not to make the same mistakes they made in 2010:
I RESOLVE not to bet a game just because it's on television. Sure it's fun watching your money but the quality of a game isn't established by whether or not it's broadcast to the masses.
I RESOLVE not to try to "get even." Get even for what? A week? A month? A lifetime? If you enjoy sports betting, you're likely to pursue it for a long time. While you should always assess your play, setting artificial time periods makes little sense. Many gamblers make the mistake of combining our first mistake—betting a game just because it is on television—with this error and wind up trying to "get even" on the Monday Night Football" game. Instead, they often get even worse off. This is a horrible strategy.
I RESOLVE to learn enough about horse racing to at least be able to make a knowledgeable bet on occasion. While the inherent vigorish can be backbreaking, unlike football, basketball and baseball, horse racing offers the opportunity to turn a small bankroll into a large one. The ability to start with, say, $200, and in just five or six races, turn that into $20,000 can not be replicated in sports betting.
I RESOLVE to shop around for the best prices. It's a competitive sports betting world out there and not all sportsbooks have the same odds on all events. There are instances, particularly in boxing for example, where odds vary widely and the savvy gambler can actually get the best of it. Take the lightweight bout between Derry Matthews and Scott Lawton in Liverpool, Jan. 21. One sportsbook we found had Matthews listed as a -275 favorite (bet $275 to win $100) while Lawton was quoted as the +200 underdog (bet $100 to win $200). But a second sportsbook was offering Matthews at -175 with Lawton at +137. Obviously, if you like the underdog Lawton, you'd rather take +200 than +137. But if you prefer the favorite Matthews, why lay -275 when you can lay -175?
I RESOLVE to always bet on rumors. What? Yes, that's right, always bet on rumors.First, you have to acknowledge that the folks making the line are pretty good at it. So let's say you hear that Kobe Bryant has the flu and won't be playing for the Lakers that night. Immediately, before the line can be changed, bet on the Lakers' opponent. If the rumor proves true, you've "stolen" a few points. If the rumor is false, you have the Lakers' foe at a fair price. Sometimes you'll have an edge and sometimes you'll have a square deal, terms that favor the rumor-following bettor.
I RESOLVE to make a number of future book wagers to give me hedging flexibility later in the season. For example, let's say you have New England at odds of 14/1 to win the Super Bowl. If the Patriots reach the Super Bowl, you can hedge by betting on their opponent, either with the points—a scenario where you could cash two bets—or on the money line, assuring yourself a profit.
I RESOLVE to understand that aside from talent, travel is the greatest factor in determining the outcome of an NBA game and to consider betting against teams that are playing their third road game in four nights or fourth away game in six nights.
I RESOLVE to consider betting "under" early in the week for NFL games scheduled for cold weather cities in winter in the hope that snow, rain or cold temperatures will give me an edge. Like betting on rumors, this is a chance worth taking.
I RESOLVE to understand that it's difficult to win in college basketball, and especially the NCAA Tournament, without a proficient point guard.
I RESOLVE to know that while picking the winner of a golf event can be enormously rewarding, sometimes to the tune of 250/1, it's also extraordinarily difficult and that golf betting should be little more than a novelty bet from time to time.
I RESOLVE to understand while the cars are doing the racing, only a handful of top drivers actually win NASCAR events over the course of a season.
I RESOLVE to appreciate that while a handful of people earn a living wagering on sports, given the excitement and enjoyment sports betting provides me, I'll be very happy to finish close to even in 2011.
