Most pundits see the AFC East race as a battle between the offensive minded Patriots and the defensively stingy Jets, the two teams which also have the division's best against the spread (ATS) records since 1998, a statistic not lost on NFL betting fans. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Age is starting to be a factor for QB Tom Brady and WR Randy Moss, and slot receiver Wes Welker is coming off knee surgery but bettors will find it difficult to abandon the Patriots, the best pointspread team of the past decade. At 18-6, New England also has been terrific against the number within the division the last four years. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 12/1; AFC Championship 6/1; AFC East 11/8; Make the Playoffs 2/3; Over/Under regular season wins 9 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU: 129-63
ATS: 107-78-7
HF:41-37-4
HD:10-3-1
AF:30-21
AD:27-16-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Patriots are 57-37-2 ATS on the road the last 12 seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: New England has covered 10 of its last 11 visits to New York to face its AFC East rival, the Jets.
NEW YORK JETS (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): With the "Magic Hand" (the No. 1 ranked defense and No. 1 rushing attack) from a year ago, the Jets are a fashionable pick to make a Super Bowl run this season as QB Mark Sanchez, who was a rookie last season, should see more pages of the playbook. Interestingly, while New York is known for its defense, NFL betting fans take note, the "over" is 17-14-1 the past two seasons. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 13/1; AFC Championship 13/2; AFC East 3/2; Make the Playoffs 8/11; Over/Under regular season wins 9 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU:100-92
ATS: 97-86-9
HF:31-30-3
HD:15-16-1
AF:13-17-1
AD:38-23-4
Sportsbook Buster: Since 1998, the Jets are 38-23-4 as road underdogs.
Sports Betting Angle: New York has covered six of its last seven visits to Miami.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 O/U): The Dolphins have gone from 1-15 to 11-5 to 7-9 straight up the last three seasons while remaining remarkably unremarkable ATS during that same three-year span (21-24-3). The team should be improved this season but will the record? The first half of the schedule, with trips to Minnesota, Green Bay and Baltimore, is brutal. But Miami does get six games within the AFC East and that's been good for bettors as the fish have gone 9-3 ATS in that situation the last two seasons. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 33/1; AFC Championship 16/1; AFC East 7/2; Make the Playoffs 3/2; Over/Under regular season wins 8 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU:98-93
ATS: 93-93-6
HF:30-37-1
HD:12-16-1
AF:14-12
AD:37-29-4
Sportsbook Buster: The Dolphins are just 42-53-2 ATS at home the last dozen seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: Miami has failed to cover six of its last seven home openers.
BUFFALO BILLS (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U): The Bills haven't had a winning season since 2004 but the team is 41-38-1 ATS in that five-year period so Buffalo can't be dismissed as an automatic bet-against by any means. The Bills will be horrible again this year but there will be opportunities for those with the wagering courage to make a stand. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 125/1; AFC Championship 66/1; AFC East 20/1; Make the Playoffs 5/1; Over/Under regular season wins 5.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU: 87-105
ATS: 96-88-6
HF:30-26-1
HD:17-20-1
AF:11-8-2
AD:38-36-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Bills are an impressive 16-4 ATS the week after playing the Patriots.
Sports Betting Angle: Buffalo has covered eight of its last nine meetings with Cincinnati.
Legend:
SU= Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF= Home Favorite
HD= Home Underdog
AF= Away Favorite
AD= Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the first of an eight-part NFL preview series.
Next: Betting the AFC North
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
