There hasn't been a winner of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown in more than three decades but the trio of races that comprise the triad, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, also pose quite the challenge for horse race betting fans, as well.
Of the three races, the Kentucky Derby, which gets its annual airing around the Churchill Downs oval every first Saturday in May, is the most difficult to win and most treacherous to bet. In fact, if you've ever been involved in a Triple Crown fantasy league (didn't think there was such a thing, huh?) then you know that most leagues offer double points on the Run for the Roses.
Five factors, readiness, stamina, experience, style and luck, conspire to make the Kentucky Derby the ultimate horse race betting challenge.
In terms of readiness, bettors hoping to cash a ticket on the 2009 Kentucky Derby must ascertain which of this season's crop of 3-year-old hopefuls will race best on the first Saturday in May, not which colt (or filly) is the best racehorse.
So the preparation of a horse sometimes can outrun his talent.
Nowadays, with most horsemen opting for as few as two preps races before the Kentucky Derby, even a minor setback can take a horse off schedule and compromise his chances for success. For that reason, some bettors have soured on Florida Derby winner Quality Road, who suffered a quarter crack recently. The colt has responded well to treatment but some gamblers remain wary.
Almost certainly, the winner of the Kentucky Derby will emerge from one of seven major prep races, the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, or Arkansas Derby. Spaced seven to three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, each of these prep races is run at a mile and an-eighth, or an eighth of a mile less than the classic mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Derby.
The winner of the Kentucky Derby doesn't necessarily have to win one of these preps but he should run well, hinting that he will be at or near peak form in the Kentucky Derby.
But running well at a mile-and-an-eighth is no guarantee that a horse will have the requisite stamina to excel at the grueling mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby. Because the pace often is faster, closing resolutely in a nine-furlong prep race offers no assurance that a horse will enjoy the added distance of the Kentucky Derby.
For that reason, and since the vast majority of horses are bred more for speed than for stamina, most experienced handicappers believe that breeding can be a determining factor in the Kentucky Derby.
In addition to stamina, the previously mentioned prep races also afford Kentucky Derby hopefuls valuable experience running a race around two turns, a seemingly simple but essential lesson that can't be learned at the lesser distances.
A horse's running style also is important. To that end, although the 1,234-foot stretch at Churchill Downs is one of the longest in North America, horses rarely come from far behind to win the Kentucky Derby. Nor are they often able to endure the entire distance on the front end. More likely, the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby will be a stalker, a horse that shadows the early leaders, always with a positional advantage to make a move when the front-runners falter.
As in any sporting event, luck also can be a factor in the Kentucky Derby's outcome. For example, while not impossible, it's sometimes difficult to overcome the luck of the draw. Horses without tactical speed that draw outside post positions (15-20) often present their jockeys with the distasteful dilemma of either having to choose between losing ground on the first turn or dropping back to the rear of the pack.
On the other hoof, horses without reasonable amounts of early speed that draw the deep inside posts (1-3) are in danger of being boxed-in for much of the race. That explains why the majority of recent winners depart from the far more favorable middle posts (4-14).
The Preakness and Belmont Stakes, the second and third legs of thoroughbred racing's most prized series, offer their own unique horse race betting challenges, factors we'll examine in upcoming columns.
