There's Huge Risk/Reward Potential in Golf Betting
January 16, 2009
With its enormous payoffs but slim chances for success, golf betting is something less than an ideal wagering pursuit for weak-kneed gamblers who might be prone to choke over a two-foot putt.
As the 2009 season gets underway, bettors again will soon have to ask themselves the same question that has been central to golf betting for nearly a decade: Do I bet on Tiger Woods, or do I bet against him?
Woods won four of the six tournaments he played last year before shutting it down to have knee surgery following a memorable victory in the US Open in June. Statistically, over his career, Woods has won about one in every four tournaments he's played, meaning you'd need odds of 3/1 on the world's top ranked player just to break even.
Good luck with that.
But if you decide to go shopping for someone other than Woods to win an individual tournament, you have to decide whether to invest your money on one of the likely, mid-priced candidates such as Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia, Anthony Kim, Jim Furyk, Padraig Harrington or Ernie Els, or go longshot hunting.
There were a number of triple-digit winners last year, including D.J. Trahan, Brian Gay, Greg Kraft, Johnson Wagner, Andres Romero, Richard S. Johnson, Chez Reavie, Parker McLachlin, Dustin Johnson, Mark Turnesa, Cameron Beckman and Will McKenzie, but hitting one in a field of 150 golfers is more luck than skill.
Given the fact that Woods won't be returning to the Tour for a while-—March is a good bet—-the difficulty of separating the other well-known golfers and the unlikelihood of tabbing a longshot, some golf betting devotees may find a series of season-long proposition bets a more comfortable fit for their wagering acumen.
One popular proposition is on which golfer will earn the most money on this year's PGA Tour. Actually, there are two props, one with Woods on the list and one without him.
Woods is 4/5 to lead the Tour in earnings with Mickelson the second choice at odds of 4/1. Singh and Garcia are quoted at odds of 7/1 each with Kim offered at 8/1. It's double (or triple) digits on everyone else.
The second list, which excludes Woods, has Mickelson at 5/2, Singh at 9/2, Kim at 6/1 and Garcia at 8/1. It's double or triple digits on all other golfers.
Which to play? Well, if you believe Woods will struggle following his surgery, then the second list offers greater value.
Sportsbooks also have other golf betting props to interest gamblers. In one, you get 7/1 that the year's lowest PGA Tour round is under 59 or take 25/1 that's it's over 61. A low round of exactly 60 is the favorite at 10/11 while exactly 61 is the second choice 11/8.
There also are props on which Australian and which South African will top their country mates in 2009 PGA Tour earnings. Adam Scott is a 5/2 favorite over Geoff Ogilvy (3/1), Robert Allenby (4/1) and Stuart Appleby (6/1) among the Aussies while Ernie Els (2/1) is the betting choice to amass more cash than fellow South Africans Trevor Immelman (11/4), Rory Sabbatini (4/1), Tim Clark (4/1) or Retief Goosen (5/1).
There also are props on a number of golfers (but not Tiger) winning at least one of more than four dozen events offered on the 2009 PGA Tour, including 2/0 on Mickelson, 1/3 on Singh, 2/3 on Furyk and 2/5 on Kim.
Eventually though, it all comes back to Woods, the game's best player and best draw. One sportsbook makes it 11/10 that Woods does not win a Major this year; 2/1 that he wins just one; 11/4 that he wins exactly two; 14/1 that he captures three; and 33/1 that he completes golf's Grand Slam by winning all four majors.
You also can bet on which will be Tiger's next Major win:
2009 Masters9/4
2009 US Open4/1
2009 British Open11/2
2009 PGA Championship13/2
2010 Masters7/1
2010 US Open10/1
2010 British Open8/1
2010 PGA Championship8/1
You also can get 11/2 that Woods won't win any of the next eight majors.
Golf betting just got a whole lot more interesting.
