Horse racing betting fans were left wondering if Rachel Alexandra would join the boys in the in the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 6 after the filly worked a half mile at Churchill Downs, Monday, May 25.
Owner Jess Jackson, who claimed he would make a decision regarding the Preakness winner's race status following her Monday workout, didn't, putting an abrupt hold on early handicapping for many...but not for us.
Should Rachel Alexandra, the winner of eight of 11 starts, including six straight, race in the Belmont Stakes, she will be the favorite and surprising Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mine That Bird will be the second choice. The filly's departure--probably to await the Mother Goose at Belmont three weeks later-—would thrust Mine That Bird into the favorite's role.
A cursory glance at a race matching the winner's of the opening two legs of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown might seem to favor Mine That Bird. After all, the gelding came from last to win the mile-and-a-quarter Derby and was closing resolutely in the mile-and-three-sixteenths Preakness, failing to catch Rachel Alexandra by a rapidly diminishing length. And the Belmont Stakes is a grueling mile and a half, a distance that should suit the stretch kick of Mine That Bird, right?
Not so fast fetlock breath.
In fact, the last eight Belmont Stakes were won by horses that were no worse than third after a mile-and-a-quarter. Half of those were on the lead at that call. Last year, Da' Tara went right to the front and stayed there, winning by more than 5 lengths while returning $79.00 for a $2 wager. Da' Tara never was forced to run a quarter faster than 23 4/5 seconds and had plenty in reserve for the stretch drive.
Only when a speed duel has developed, as it did in 2004 when Smarty Jones and Rock Hard Ten went a mile-and-a-quarter in 2:00 2/5, has a horse come from off the pace to win the Belmont Stakes. But Birdstone, who paid $74.00, worked his way up gradually and actually was second with a quarter-mile remaining.
Clearly, pace, far more than distance, dictates how the Belmont Stakes is won.
So, while Mine That Bird is a strong closer, if the fractions aren't honest, he may not be able to make up much ground on front-stepping horses that aren't tired from a slow pace. And, if history is a guide, the Belmont Stakes is likely to be slow, maybe even painfully slow.
Secretariat set the standard in 1973 with a world record 2:24 for the mile and a half. The next fastest time is 2:26 (about 10 lengths behind Secretariat) held by Easy Goer in 1989 and A.P. Indy in 1992. The 2:227 barrier hasn't been broken in seven years and Da' Tara and Sarava (who paid a record $142.50 in 2002) each took more than 2:29 to finish their mile-and-a-half races. Commendable, the winner in 2000, required over 2:31 to complete the marathon.
Because a rider's judgment can be as important as a horse's stamina, the Belmont is called a "jockey's race." And riders often are reluctant to push the pace for fear of running out of gas in the "Test of the Champion."
So, if she goes, most pace scenarios would favor the more versatile and pace attending Rachel Alexandra.
While 11 horses have accomplished the Kentucky Derby-Belmont Stakes double and 18 others have prevailed in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, this year's Belmont is by no means a two-horse (or, if Rachel Alexandra does not go) one-horse race.
Dunkirk, a $3.7 million purchase, has been freshened after he stumbled and finished a disappointing 11th in the Derby. Charitable Man and Brave Victory come off respective first and third place finishes in the Peter Pan at Belmont, May 9. The steady Chocolate Candy could improve on his fifth in the Derby. The D. Wayne Lukas trained pair of Flying Private and Luv Guv were fourth and eighth in the Preakness. Minner's Escape comes off a victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, May 2. Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird have been resting since their Derby runs.
With or without the presence of Rachel Alexandra, horse racing betting fans will be challenged at this year's Belmont Stakes.
