Call it short-term memory loss if you like but NFL betting fans can get spoiled on a team’s previous season’s results. The notion lingers of the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, Packers and Giants as elite teams while the Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Rams and Ravens are etched in the brain as sub-standard football clubs.
In truth though, the difference between 11-5 and upper crust status and 5-11 and throw-out-the-bums panic is not just six games but six plays. In a league where just about every team is involved in a handful of games that are decided by six points or less (or one play) only a slight improvement can take a team from the doldrums to the playoffs.
Not coincidentally, these rebound teams, the ones that make surprising improvement, also surprise the oddsmakers and are the best ones to bet. Of course, the key is to identify these teams early, a task made easier by examining two key factors: turnover differential and schedule.
With that in mind, let’s look at a couple of NFL teams that could prove to be pointspread juggernauts this season:
New Orleans: The Saints became the first NFL team ever to go from 13 losses to the Conference title game in 2006 (10-6 ATS) then fell apart last season, slumping to 6-10 ATS, ending -7 in turnover differential while facing a far more difficult schedule. This season, New Orleans will meet teams that had a .449 winning percentage last year and by one more subjective measure, could have the easiest schedule in the NFL. With an offense high-powered enough to cover any spread and a soft road schedule, the Saints could come marching in for NFL betting devotees this fall.
Oakland: The Raiders haven’t had a winning record against the spread since 2002 so it’s with some trepidation that we nominate them as a team for gamblers to watch this season. Oakland lost five pointspread decisions by a touchdown or less last season while ending the year -11 in turnovers. But this season’s schedule is soft with just three foes that made the playoffs a year ago and we expect the Raiders to be a pleasant pointspread surprise.
Savvy bettors (that’s you, right?) also understand that not only is there money to be made betting on improving teams but also by wagering against teams that over-performed last season.
Let’s isolate a couple for this season’s wagering consideration:
Indianapolis: The Colts finished the 2007 season at +18 in turnover differential, second best in the NFL, but were just 9-7 ATS (9-8 if you include their first round playoff loss to the Chargers). Indianapolis has a schedule that is the second most difficult in the League, with non-division road trips to Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay, San Diego, and Cleveland, as well as AFC South games at Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston. With Peyton Manning returning from injury, the Colts could be primed for a pointspread plummet.
Seattle: The Seahawks had the easiest schedule in the NFL last year but will face a slate that is ranked 12th this season. What’s more, Seattle was +10 in turnover margin, an advantage that quickly could be erased, given the improvement of division rivals St. Louis, Arizona and San Francisco and the difficult non-division schedule that includes road trips to Buffalo, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay and Dallas. New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Washington could prove to be unwelcome guests in Seattle. Bettors who cast their wagering line with the Seahawks might come up empty this season.
NFL betting success can come with a team that is over valued or under valued but an evaluation of both turnover margin and schedule strength should help you determine which way to go.
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This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
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