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April 2008
The Kentucky Derby, dubbed "The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports," surely is the greatest two minutes in horse race betting and, come to think of it, probably also is the two greatest minutes in sports betting. Where else - certainly not in baseball, basketball, football, hockey, tennis, auto racing, golf or soccer - can you make a bet, learn whether you've won or lost, and then parlay your winnings or try to recoup your losses in the time it takes to kick back a mint julep?
This year's annual tour of the legendary Churchill Downs oval is slated for May 3 and if recent history of the mile-and-a-quarter classic is any indicator, then one of a half-dozen prep races, the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Illinois Derby, Blue Grass Stakes or Arkansas Derby, likely will produce the race winner. In fact, the last eight horses draped in a garland of red roses in the Louisville track's winner's circle emerged from one of those races. So that's a good place to begin our analysis:
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, March 29)
Once Barbaro (2006) proved that a five-week layoff was no impediment to success on the first Saturday in May, horsemen have been more willing to utilize this race as a final prep to the Kentucky Derby. Enter Big Brown, who overcame the outside No. 12 post to cruise to a five length victory. Big Brown now has won his three lifetime starts by a combined 29 lengths and looks like the horse to beat in Louisville. Critics will remind backers of Big Brown that another colt, Curlin, also was three-for-three last year but was hurt by his inexperience in the Kentucky Derby and finished third. Curlin did go on to win Horse of the Year honors.
Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, April 5)
Barclay Tagg, who trained Funny Cide to a Derby victory five years ago, has another potential winner in Tale of Ekati, the come-from-behind hero of this New York prep race. War Pass, the 2-year-old champion from a year ago, was the runner-up to Tale of Ekati, his second straight loss after five straight victories. It appears that War Pass may have distance limitations.
Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park, April 5)
Colonel John looked strong winning the AA Derby but questions remain as to whether the colt can carry his form from the synthetic tracks of California to the traditional dirt surface at Churchill Downs. The answer to that question may have been uncovered when Gayego, another horse who'd only raced on synthetic surfaces, won the Arkansas Derby (See below) on the dirt at Oaklawn Park.
Illinois Derby (Hawthorne Park, April 5)
War Emblem put this race on the handicapping radar screen when he used it as a launching pad to victory in the 2002 Kentucky Derby but Recapturetheglory, who took this year's running of the race, doesn't seem to have that quality.
Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland, April 12)
You have to wonder why trainer Steve Asmussen would send Pyro to the synthetic surface at Keeneland when there was an easy $1 million to be had on the dirt at the Arkansas Derby. After three straight wins, Pyro finished 10th in the Bluegrass. Some will throw out the race because of the surface. For others, it's a sign of disintegrating form. It's the kind of performance that makes handicapping so challenging. Monba and Cowboy Cal, ran 1-2 in the Blue Grass, giving trainer Todd Pletcher, who saddled five horses in the Kentucky Derby last year, two more chances to win the race for the first time.
Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park, April 12)
Gayego showed he could handle the dirt, in the process boosting the prospects of another synthetic track horse, Colonel John, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Z Fortune, who finished second, will interest longshot players.
In summary, the best way to bet the Kentucky Derby is the way to bet any race: Assess each horse's ability in relation to his odds then bet the horse with the best value. With patience, diligence and some luck, Kentucky Derby not only can be fun but profitable.
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