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January 24, 2008
The teams had barely left bone-chilling Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the word arrived from up high (actually, the second floor of a building in Las Vegas) that the most eagerly anticipated sports betting number of the year was 14, the spread by which the New England Patriots were favored over the New York Giants to win Super Bowl XLII at Cardinals Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, Feb. 3.
Noting, perhaps, that the Giants, as 13-point home underdogs, had lost to the Patriots in the final game of the regular season by a narrow 38-35 score, Dec. 29, the line quickly fell to 13 1/2, 13, and even 12 1/2 at some sports betting venues.
Oddsmakers also tossed out a total of 55 for the game, but as is typical when there's early action on the underdog, the number was bet down to 53 1/2 at some sportsbooks.
Oddly enough, for bettors who believe in streaks, the Giants and Patriots approach the Super Bowl from opposite ends of the wagering equation. New York, which is 13-6 straight up (SU), also is 13-6 against the point spread (ATS) and has covered its last five games. The Giants are a remarkable 9-1 ATS in road games, including 3-0 in the playoffs. New York also is 3-1 ATS versus the AFC.
On the other cleat, New England, which is 18-0 SU but a modest 10-8 ATS, all in the role of a favorite, has failed to cover its last five games, including playoff contests against Jacksonville and San Diego. The Patriots are 2-2 ATS versus the NFC.
Despite those recent trends, technical handicappers, bettors who place great emphasis on historical data in attempting to resolve current point spread dilemmas, undoubtedly will lean towards the favorite. In fact, in the 41-year history of the Super Bowl, betting favorites have covered the point spread 28 times. Only 13 underdogs have beaten the number, although 11 of them have won the game outright.
The relative historic success of outright underdogs may encourage some unsophisticated bettors to play New York on the money line at about +400 (bet $100 to win $400). But the appeal of this wager hardly is lost on oddsmakers and sportsbooks who, as usual, have vastly devalued the price on the underdog Giants in this situation. Bettors beware!
As for totals, which did not come into widespread use until 1982, "over" has prevailed on 15 occasions, "under" on 10 and there has been one push.
For those bettors who prefer a more recent look back, beginning with the 2000 season, favorites have won three Super Bowls and underdogs have won four, including two outright victories, the Buccaneers (+4) over the Raiders, 48-21, in 2003, and the Patriots (+14) over the Rams, 20-17, in 2002. Of the seven games, three have gone over the total while four have gone under the number.
While upwards of 80 percent of the money wagered on Super Bowl XLII will be on the point spread (or "side"), and an additional 10 percent on the game's total, bet takers also will be offering gamblers hundreds of other ways to bet the big game.
The most popular of these proposition wagers (or "props") will be on which player will be first to score a touchdown. But sportsbooks also will offer props on everything from the number of field goals and sacks to whether or not there will be a safety or two-point conversion, whether the game will go into overtime and which coach will be the first to challenge a play. There also are props featuring dozens of individual players and even some bets where the gambler must choose whether the points scored in the game are greater or less than a combination of the points, rebounds and assists of various NBA players in action that same day.
Yes, the Super Bowl is a super attraction for sports fans. But Super Bowl betting truly is super for gamblers, too.
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