The continued popularity of NFL preseason betting can be linked to America’s growing addiction to anything football. Bettors, particularly those in the United States who have survived a five-month hiatus from their favorite wagering sport, seem unwilling (or unable) to endure another five weeks before the NFL preseason, which kicks off on Aug. 3, morphs into the NFL regular season on Sept. 4. Craving action, gamblers often plunge into the preseason (the NFL abhors the term “exhibition”) ill-equipped to handle the vagaries that set it apart from the regular season.
So, while every team will be trying to win during the first week in September, that will not necessarily be the case for each team during the first week in August. Teams simply have different motivations and different goals for the preseason than they do for the regular season.
If you’re a successful veteran team with a well-established head coach, such as the Giants, Patriots or Colts, where most of the playoff pieces already are in place, keeping your key personnel healthy is much more important than posting a preseason “W,” let alone covering the spread. So don’t expect to see much of Eli Manning, Tom Brady or Donovan McNabb in August.
On the other cleat, if you’re a team hoping to turn things around, especially one with a new head coach implementing fresh offensive and defensive schemes such as the Dolphins, Falcons or Ravens, the run up to the regular season can be used to help instill a winning attitude while allowing your key personnel to become familiar with packages and nomenclature.
Sportsbooks, of course, understand these subtleties. In fact, it’s the major reason why preseason lines are so much tighter than they would be if the same two teams met during the regular season.
Still, thanks to the general stability of NFL ownership, many teams have developed trends over the years that can, when combined with a careful analysis of current needs and conditions, offer a clue of what to expect during the upcoming NFL preseason. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the most enduring trends.
Preseason Pointspread Trends (1990-2007)
► Arizona is 17-10 as favorite and has covered five straight Week 3 games.
► Atlanta is 21-13-2 as a favorite.
► Baltimore is 18-13 as an underdog.
► Buffalo is 10-20-1 as a favorite but has covered five consecutive Week 1 games.
► Carolina has covered seven of its last eight games as an underdog.
► Chicago is 1-5 as a home favorite its last six games.
► Cincinnati is 10-18-1 as a favorite.
► Cleveland Coach Romeo Crennel is 7-1 as an underdog.
► Dallas has covered six straight Week 2 preseason games.
► Denver has covered eight straight Week 4 games.
► Detroit has lost six straight as a favorite and is 1-10 in Week 3 games.
► Green Bay Coach Mike McCarthy is 2-0 as a favorite and 1-5 as an underdog.
► Houston is 1-4-1 as a favorite.
► Indianapolis is 1-8 in Week 2 games.
► Jacksonville is 15-7-1 as an underdog.
► Kansas City is 28-44-2 in preseason play the last 18 years.
► Miami is 15-23-2 as a favorite.
► Minnesota is 21-12-1 as an underdog.
► New England has covered five straight preseason openers.
► New Orleans is 10-20 as a favorite.
► New York Giants are 14-23-1 as a favorite.
► New York Jets are 46-28.
► Oakland is 1-6 as a home underdog its last seven.
► Philadelphia is 9-0 in Week 2 games.
► Pittsburgh is 1-5 as a home underdog its last six.
► St. Louis is 15-26 as an underdog.
► San Diego is 1-6 in its last seven preseason openers.
► San Francisco is 1-8 at home against teams with regular season losing records from the previous year.
► Seattle is 11-2 as an underdog off a straight up loss.
► Tampa Bay is 20-12-3 as an underdog.
► Tennessee is 19-10 as an underdog.
► Washington is 1-15 as an underdog of more than three points.
