Legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough was fond of saying that NFL betting is part reality and part perception, a description that aptly fits this year's recently concluded NFL draft. So while it will be impossible to know the true impact selected players have for several seasons-—some will contribute mightily, some will be marginal, others will be busts-that reality has done nothing to stop either sportsbooks or bettors from forming perceptions as to how the draft will impact winning and losing and, by extension, betting, this season.
The immediate impact of the April 26-27 draft in New York City has been a slight alteration in Super Bowl future book prices as sportsbooks dare gamblers to challenge their assessment on which teams improved their NFL Championship chances through the annual flesh lottery.
The most likely beneficiary was Kansas City, which has reduced its NFL title odds from 125/1 to 90/1 after obtaining seven of the first 105 available football players. The Chiefs' first choice, LSU tackle Glenn Dorsey, arguably the best player overall, will be expected to help stop the run, especially since making progress in the AFC West means slowing down LaDainian Tomlinson of division champion San Diego. In two games against the Chiefs last season, Tomlinson ran for 309 yards on just 43 carries, a 7.1-yard average.
The Chargers and Chiefs meet in San Diego, Nov. 9. Last season, the Chargers were favored by 12 1/2 in San Diego. What do you bet that the pointspread is less this year? That certainly would lend credence to the supposition that the draft impacts NFL oddsmaking, bookmaking and, most importantly, NFL betting.
Teams at the opposite end of the NFL hierarchy, Miami and New England, also seemed to benefit from the draft. The Dolphins, who were 1-15 last season, got themselves a bookend left tackle, Jake Long, a pass rushing end, Phillip Merling, and a QB prospect, Chad Henne, to move from 125/1 to 100/1 in futures.
New England, which finished 18-1 after losing the Super Bowl, was reduced from 4/1 to 10/3 in futures after helping an aging defense with two linebackers and a cornerback in its first three selections.
NFC East rivals Dallas and Super Bowl champion New York each were judged to have had strong drafts, the Cowboys dropped from 14/1 to 8/1 in futures while the Giants took the plunge from 22/1 to 16/1. In near mirror drafts, Dallas and New York each helped themselves at running back and in the defensive backfield, two positions with a relatively modest learning curve.
The teams met three times last season, the Cowboys covering a six-point spread at home and a two-point spread on the road against the Giants during the regular season only to lose as a seven-point favorite at home when the teams met in the playoffs. With both teams doing well in the college player allotment process, look for tight lines again this season.
Of course, just as some teams were helped by the draft, others lost ground because their selections were judged not to be on a par with their rivals. Depending on whose analysis you believe, teams such as Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland, Denver and Washington did not improve sufficiently.
The Titans, who fell from 35/1 to 42/1 in Super Bowl futures, got themselves a speedy running back in Chris Johnson but holes along the defensive front and lack of big play receiver leave the team vulnerable in the highly competitive AFC South.
The Texans (60/1 to 80/1) may have reached with some of their picks while the Browns (28/1 to 40/1) did not have a selection until the fourth round this year.
The Broncos (40/1 to 45/1) seem to have fallen further behind AFC West rivals the Chargers and the Chiefs while the Redskins (35/1 to 50/1) elected to go with receivers with their first three selections, failing to address needs along both lines, a choice that could leave Washington looking up at New York, Dallas and Philadelphia in the rough and tumble NFC East.
The NFL Draft has changed the way oddsmakers and sportsbooks look at the upcoming 2008 season but how the selection process affects NFL betting, ultimately, is up to you.
