The Giants may have won Super Bowl LXII just five months ago but in a lack of NFL betting respect only the late Rodney Dangerfield could appreciate, New York isn’t even favored to win its own division this season.
New York is a 3/1 second choice in the NFC East behind Dallas, the 3/5 division favorite and the franchise that handily beat the Giants twice during the regular season before losing to New York in the playoffs. At consensus odds of 6/1, the Cowboys trail only the Patriots, who opened at 4/1, as favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, Feb. 1.
The Patriots, who won 18 consecutive games before losing last season’s Super Bowl, may have an easier time winning their fourth NFL title in the last eight years than securing the AFC Championship and making it as far as the NFL Championship. Indianapolis, 7/1; San Diego, 10/1; and Jacksonville, 12/1, all pose serious obstacles to New England. In fact, the AFC is so loaded with talented teams that if you want to place a generic future book bet on an AFC team winning the Super Bowl, you have to lay six points. The total is 51. Yep, if you’re willing to gamble blind, so are most bookmakers.
Over in the NFC, the Giants, at odds of 12/1; the Saints, 20/1; and the Eagles, 25/1, are the primary threats to a Cowboys Super Bowl.
In addition to Super Bowl odds, a majority of sportsbooks also offer future book prices on league and division championships. To be sure, most future book lists have plenty of vigorish, meaning that the sportsbook charges a hefty hidden premium for taking your action, but these future books provide advantages for the player, as well.
For one thing, the three tiers of future book wagering provide the savvy player with flexibility and the ability to hedge his bets. For example, let’s say you’re willing to take even money on the Steelers winning the AFC North. It wouldn’t be a shock if the title came down to the final game of the season when Cleveland, the 2/1 second choice in the division, visits Pittsburgh. If you’ve made a sizable bet on the Steelers, you can hedge by betting the Browns, plus the points, to cover the game.
In that scenario, if Pittsburgh wins but doesn’t cover, you cash both your future book bet on the Steelers and your game bet on the Browns. Or, you could take Cleveland on the money line. Irrespective of the game’s outcome, if you’ve weighted your wagers properly, you’re assured a profit.
Another way to play futures to your advantage is to grab a few Super Bowl contenders and then bet against them in the playoff games leading up to the title tilt. For instance, if you bet New England when future book prices first were posted more than a year ago, you could get 6/1 at some venues. But even if you got 5/1 or 4/1, there was some hedging to be done.
Knowing you bet the Patriots in the Super Bowl future book, you could have bet on their opponents in the playoffs. That would have meant taking +13 1/2 with Jacksonville (a 31-20 cover), +14 with San Diego (a 21-12 cover), and +12 with the Giants (a 14-17 cover). So your future book pick (New England) didn’t win the Super Bowl but because you had a live team, you were able to work the system to your advantage anyway.
For many players, the NFL betting season begins with a future book wager. Tellingly, it may not only be their first bet but their most important, as well.
