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NBA Betting: Analyzing the Eastern Conference Southeast Division

October 24, 2008

The Magic were also magic to NBA betting fans last season but a rising Heat and a dangerous team of Wizards may have something to say about that this year. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2006/07 season are in parentheses:

 

ORLANDO MAGIC (57-35 SU, 56-34-2 ATS, 41-50-1 O/U): The Magic have a dominate post player in Dwight Howard (20.7 PPG, 14.2 RPG) but a stable of 3-point shooters, including Hedo Turkoglu (19.5 PPG) and Rashard Lewis (18.2 PPG) also make Orlando a difficult assignment for opposing teams. Jameer Nelson runs the show from the point and the return of Tony Battie should be a help for Howard on the boards. The Magic should continue to improve on last year’s first round playoff exit.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 24-15-2

Home Underdog:  3-1

Away Favorite: 13-7

Away Underdog: 15-8

Sportsbook Buster: The Magic were more than 60 percent successful in six betting categories last season: home, away, home favorite, home underdog, away favorite and away underdog.

Sports Betting Angle: Orlando was just 5-10-1 ATS versus teams from the Southeast Conference last year.

 

MIAMI HEAT (15-67 SU, 33-47-2 ATS, 35-45-2 O/U): Dwayne Wade showed what he could when he’s healthy in helping the USA win the Gold Medal at the Olympics, lending credence to the proposition that the Heat again will be a force this season. Wade (24.6 PPG) should get some help from top rookie Michael Beasley. Versatile forwards Shawn Marion (15.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and Udonis Haslem (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) offer quality support so even without a quality presence in the paint, Miami could sneak into the playoffs.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  1-12

Home Underdog: 11-15-1

Away Favorite:  3-2

Away Underdog: 17-18-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Heat was a dismal 1-12 as a homer favorite last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Miami was 2-12 ATS in games following a straight up win.

 

WASHINGTON WIZARDS (45-43 SU, 48-39-1 ATS, 45-42-1 O/U): Keeping Washington’s terrific trio of Antawn Jamison (21.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG), Caron Butler (20.3 PPG) and Gilbert Arenas (19.4 PPG) healthy is all that is separating the Wizards from a serious playoff run. Easier said than done; the threesome missed 96 regular season games last season. With a little luck and contribution from their role players, the high-scoring Wizards should again be a playoff force this season.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 17-13

Home Underdog:  6-8

Away Favorite:  3-6

Away Underdog: 22-12-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Wizards were 13-5 ATS versus teams from the Atlantic Division last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Washington was 22-12-1 as an away underdog last year.

 

ATLANTA HAWKS (40-49 SU, 41-48 ATS, 45-43-1 O/U): After winning just 37 games during the regular season, the Hawks pushed the eventual NBA champion Celtics to seven games before bowing out of the playoffs last year. But Atlanta lost Josh Childress in the off-season and though it eventually signed enormously promising Josh Smith (17.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG), there are lingering bad feelings over the negotiations. Joe Johnson (21.7 PPG), Marvin Williams (14.8 PPG), Mike Bibby (13.9 PPG, 6.0 APG) and Al Horford (10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG) are solid but can the team overcome the off-season turmoil?

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 15-13

Home Underdog:  8-5

Away Favorite:  5-2

Away Underdog: 12-24

Sportsbook Buster: The Hawks were 12-24 as an away underdog last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Atlanta was 3-7 ATS versus teams from the Southwest Division last year.

 

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (32-50 SU, 35-44-3 ATS, 43-38-1 O/U): Larry Brown inherits a team without much muscle in the paint and far too little shooting accuracy on the outside. Jason Richardson (21.8 PPG) and Gerald Wallace (19.4 PPG) have their moments, as does Emeka Okafor (13.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) but Wallace and Okafor both are undersized at power forward and center, respectively, and guard Raymond Felton shot just 41 percent last year. Brown’s reputation will be tested here.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-10

Home Underdog:  8-11-1

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog: 14-21-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Bobcats were 14-21-2 as an away underdog last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Charlotte was 7-3 ATS versus teams from the Northwest Division last year.


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