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NBA Betting: Analyzing the Western Conference Pacific Division

October 24, 2008

The Lakers not only were the best team but the best pointspread team in the division a year ago. The former may be easier to achieve than the latter this season. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2006/07 season are in parentheses:

 

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (71-32 SU, 57-44-2 ATS, 47-55-1 O/U): A healthy Andrew Bynum, who led the NBA in field goal percentage a season ago, means that the Lakers frontcourt of Bynum, Pao Gasol (18.9 PPG) and Lamar Odom (14.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG) will be among the league’s toughest. And with Kobe Bryant (28.3 PPG) and Derek Fisher (11.7 PPG) on the perimeter, the backcourt is no weakness, either. Coach Phil Jackson may need a fitting for that elusive 10th championship ring.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 24-25

Home Underdog:  2-1

Away Favorite: 16-9

Away Underdog: 14-8-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Lakers were 31-18-2 ATS on the road last season.

Sports Betting Angle: LA was 35-21-1 in games following an ATS victory last year.

 

PHOENIX SUNS (56-31 SU, 42-41-4 ATS, 48-39 O/U): With more than 40 combined seasons behind them, Shaquille O’Neal (13.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG), Grant Hill (13.1 PPG) and Steve Nash (16.9 PPG, 11.1 APG) are in decline, though still productive. Good thing Amare Stoudemire (25.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG), Leandro Barbosa (15.6 PPG) and Raja Bell (11.9 PPG) are there too because even a slight drop-off will hurt you in the highly competitive Western Conference.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 19-22-1

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite: 17-13-1

Away Underdog:  5-5-2

Sportsbook Buster: The “over” was 21-9 when the Suns played teams in the Eastern Conference last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Phoenix was 3-6-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games last year.

 

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (48-34 SU, 34-48 ATS, 43-37-2 O/U): Corey Maggette (22.1 PPG), Monta Ellis (20.2 PPG) and Stephen Jackson (20.1 PPG) give the Warriors three proven scorers but the departure of Baron Davis and the lack of a proven pointguard could hurt Golden State this season. Equally disturbing, Ellis injured himself in a summer moped accident and will be out for the first part of the season. The Warriors also need improved play from center Andris Biedrins (10.5 PPG, 9.8 RPG) if they are to earn a playoff berth.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 10-25

Home Underdog:  4-2

Away Favorite: 10-6

Away Underdog: 10-15

Sportsbook Buster: At 10-25, the Warriors were the worst home favorites in the Western Conference last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Golden State was 15-33 ATS in games following a SU win last year

 

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (25-39 SU, 33-48-1 ATS, 34-47-1 O/U): The Clippers scrambled their roster and the result should be entertaining if nothing else. Baron Davis (21.8 PPG) will put on a show with top draft choice Eric Gordon and Cuttino Mobley (12.8 PPG) vying to be Davis’ backcourt running mate. Chris Kaman (15.7 PPG, 12.7 RPG) and recently acquired Marcus Camby, who led the NBA in blocked shots for the fourth time last season, will bring a presence to the paint. The Clippers should be in the fight for the final playoff spot.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-5

Home Underdog:  9-19

Away Favorite:  0-0-1

Away Underdog: 18-22

Sportsbook Buster: The Clippers were 9-19 as a home underdog last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Los Angeles was 11-18-1 ATS versus teams from the Eastern Conference last year.

 

SACRAMENTO KINGS (38-44 SU, 44-36-2 ATS, 43-36-2 O/U): The Kings have exorcized the ghosts of Ron Artest and Henry Bibby for the likes of emerging stars such as sweet-shooting Kevin Martin (23.7 PPG) and Beno Udrih (12.8 PPG), a comer at the point. Brad Miller (13.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG) resurrected his career with a solid season a year ago but let’s be frank: Sacramento won’t be a playoff contender this season.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 11-11

Home Underdog: 14-5

Away Favorite:  1-5-1

Away Underdog: 18-15

Sportsbook Buster: The Kings were 18-11-1 ATS versus teams from the Eastern Conference last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Sacramento was 14-5 as a home underdog last year.


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