Anyone who is contemplating a round of golf betting tees off by asking themselves if Tiger Woods, the world's No. 1 ranked player and the most dominating force on the links since Jack Nicklaus, is worth the price.
That question may be even more difficult to answer than usual when Woods, who had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee April 15 and has not played a competitive round of gold since the final round of the Masters, April 13, lines up as the consensus 8/5 favorite to win the US Open at the Torrey Pines Golf Club in La Jolla, California, June 12.
This will be the second time in the last three years that Woods has had a two-month layoff before a Major championship. In 2006, Woods missed nine weeks after his father's death before returning to play the US Open at Winged Foot, failing to make the cut in a Major for the only time in his career.
Woods, who was listed as low as even money and as high as 2/1 at the 18 future book wagering sites we surveyed, from a strictly statistical standpoint, even before the layoff, was an historically shaky bet. In 50 previous Major events, Woods had won 13 times, a success rate of 26 percent. While that's not far behind his record of 51 wins in 185 non-Major golf tournaments (27.5 percent), you'd have to be getting odds of just under 3/1 on Woods to break even if you bet on him in every Major. Worse, while Woods has won four Masters, four PGA Championships and three British Open titles, he's won just twice in a dozen US Open tries.
On the other cleat, Woods has owned the Torrey Pines South Golf Course, winning for the sixth time there at the Buick Open, January 27. But the Torrey Pines Golf Course that Woods humbled four months ago will be a lot different when it hosts the US Open. The rough will be longer and tougher, the greens slicker and faster and the 11-under par score Woods achieved in January, just a memory.
The keys could be Torrey Pines' quartet of long par fours, the 515-yard sixth, the 504-yard 12th, 483-yard fourth, and 477-yard 15th. Miss the fairway and you're probably looking at bogey, or worse. You'll need to play driver off the tee on those holes (and probably others on Torrey's 7,600-yard, par 71 course) but despite winning three of the five events he's played in this year, it has to be noted that Woods is hitting just 57 percent of fairways, 154th on Tour.
If not Woods, then gamblers will have to ask themselves another question: “Who else?”
The logical answer would seem to be Phil Mickelson, a San Diego resident who has won three times at Torrey Pines and is very familiar with the course. Mickelson is in good form, too, coming off a victory in the Colonial, May 25.
Mickelson, a four-time runner-up at the US Open, opened as an 8/1 second choice in futures, not a bad price considering his recent strong play and familiarity with the course.
Longshot bettors will like the fact that once you get past Woods and Mickelson, it's double digits on everyone else. British Open champion Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Adam Scott and Vijay Singh form the next group with most in the 20/1 to 30/1 range.
Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy, Justin Rose, KJ Choi, Stewart Cink and Masters champion Trevor Immelman come next, usually at 40/1 or more.
Defending US Open champion Angel Cabrera is 66/1 to win back-to-back titles.
For those looking for something a bit more exotic when it comes to golf betting, look for many books to offer propositions on the prospects of a hole-in-one or a playoff, as well as an over/under on the winning score.
