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College Basketball Betting: Analyzing the Southern Conference

November 10, 2008

Conference bully Davidson again had the best pointspread record last year, something students of college basketball betting will be watching this season. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2007/08 season are in parentheses:

 

NORTH DIVISION

CHATTANOOGA (18-13 SU, 13-15 ATS, 15-13 O/U): Five senior starters return from last season’s North Division championship team.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-4

Home Underdog:  1-1

Away Favorite:  1-2

Away Underdog:  2-5

Neutral Site:   1-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Moccasins were 4-10 ATS away from their home court last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Chattanooga was 7-4 as a home favorite during the 2007/08 season.

 

APPALACHIAN STATE (18-13 SU, 12-16 ATS, 14-13 O/U): The Mountaineers have an improved backcourt but need help up front to catch Chattanooga.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-6

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  2-3

Away Underdog:  3-4

Neutral Site:   2-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Mountaineers were 5-9 ATS after a pointspread loss.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 7-3 in games after an Appalachian State pointspread win.

 

UNC-GREENSBORO (19-12 SU, 13-14-1 ATS, 15-13 O/U): The Spartans will have to reload, probably with more 3-pointers from Mikko Koivisto.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-4

Home Underdog:  0-2

Away Favorite:  2-3

Away Underdog:  5-4-1

Neutral Site:   1-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Spartans were 3-7 ATS after a SU defeat.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 14-8 in UNC-Greensboro conference games.

 

ELON (14-19 SU, 16-14-1 ATS, 13-18 O/U): The Phoenix must improve its woeful outside shooting to have any chance at a .500 season.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  4-3

Home Underdog:  2-2

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog:  5-7-1

Neutral Site:   4-0

Sportsbook Buster: The Phoenix was 4-0 ATS on neutral courts.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 15-9 in Elon’s conference games.

 

SAMFORD (14-16 SU, 12-14 ATS, 10-16 O/U): The Bulldogs leave the Ohio Valley Conference for the SoCon without their top two scorers from a year ago.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  1-6

Home Underdog:  2-0

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  6-7

Neutral Site:   0-0

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulldogs were 1-6 as home favorites in Ohio Valley Conference games last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Samford was 3-8 ATS in games following a SU win.

 

WESTERN CAROLINA (10-21 SU, 13-14 ATS, 11-16 O/U): All-league swingman Brandon Giles is good but WCU still has little to complement him.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  3-1

Home Underdog:  2-4

Away Favorite:  0-2

Away Underdog:  7-5

Neutral site:   1-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Catamounts were 3-9 ATS on three or more days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 13-8 in Western Carolina Southern Conference games.

 

SOUTH DIVISION

DAVIDSON (29-7 SU, 23-11 ATS, 15-18-1 O/U): Stephen Curry (25.9 PPG) could lead Davidson to another NCAA Tournament Elite Eight finish.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  4-6

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  9-4

Away Underdog:  1-0

Neutral Site:   9-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Wildcats were 9-2 ATS in non-conference games.

Sports Betting Angle: Davidson was 7-0 as an underdog.

 

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (16-17 SU, 19-13 ATS, 17-14-1 O/U): The entire starting lineup returns, including a pair of second-team all conference picks.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-5

Home Underdog:  1-1

Away Favorite:  2-1

Away Underdog:  8-3

Neutral Site:   3-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Cougars were 10-4 ATS on the road.

Sports Betting Angle: College of Charleston was 10-2 ATS after a pointspread loss.

 

GEORGIA SOUTHERN (20-12 SU, 16-12-1 ATS, 18-11 O/U): The Eagles had their wings clipped by the loss of three of their top four scorers.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-3-1

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  5-1

Away Underdog:  0-6

Neutral Site:   5-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Eagles were 11-5-1 as a favorite but just 4-7 as an underdog.

Sports Betting Angle: Georgia Southern was 14-4 ATS after a SU victory.

 

FURMAN (7-23 SU, 13-15 ATS, 10-17 O/U): The Paladins could be much improved with eight of their top nine players returning.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  0-1

Home Underdog:  5-5

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  7-4

Neutral Site:   0-5

Sportsbook Buster: The Paladins were 1-5 ATS outside their conference.

Sports Betting Angle: Furman was 8-4 ATS on the road.

 

WOFFORD (16-16 SU, 12-15-1 ATS, 15-13 O/U): The Terriers will have to break in a new backcourt, a fact that rarely is promising.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-3-1

Home Underdog:  1-2

Away Favorite:  0-2

Away Underdog:  7-5

Neutral Site:   2-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Terriers were 8-13-1 ATS in Southern Conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: Wofford was 3-6-1 ATS at home.

 

THE CITADEL (6-24 SU, 12-12-1 ATS, 14-11 O/U): The Bulldogs played 11 freshmen last season so there’s some reason for optimism this year.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  0-0

Home Underdog:  6-5

Away Favorite:  0-0

Away Underdog:  5-6-1

Neutral Site:   1-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulldogs were 8-5 ATS on three of more days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: The Citadel was 7-3 ATS in games after a pointspread victory.


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