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College Basketball Betting: Analyzing the Pac-10

November 3, 2008

Only three of the Pac-10’s teams failed to post a winning pointspread record last season, making the league a favorite of college basketball betting fans. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2006/07 season are in parentheses:

 

UCLA (35-4 SU, 22-16 ATS, 20-17-1 O/U): The Bruins lose three starters but the league is down and UCLA still has the talent to win another Pac-10 title.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite: 10-7

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  7-2

Away Underdog:  1-0

Neutral site:   4-7

Sportsbook Buster: The Bruins were 8-2 ATS on the road last season.

Sports Betting Angle: UCLA was 14-8 ATS on three days rest last season.

 

ARIZONA STATE (21-13 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 12-18 O/U): Everyone who matters is back so look for the Sun Devils to challenge for a Pac-10 crown.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-6

Home Underdog:  3-1

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  3-5-1

Neutral Site:   3-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Sun Devils were 8-3 ATS on one or no days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: ASU was 11-7-1 ATS in conference play.

 

USC (21-12 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 14-17 O/U): Hold the (O.J.) Mayo as the Trojans look for scoring punch and better defense.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-4

Home Underdog:  1-1-1

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  5-3

Neutral Site:   3-4

Sportsbook Buster: The Trojans were 8-3 ATS on the road.

Sports Betting Angle: USC was 9-4-1 as an underdog.

 

WASHINGTON STATE (26-9 SU, 18-16 ATS, 14-17-3 O/U): Coach Tony Bennett has won 26 games in each of his first two seasons but this will be a challenge.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-8

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  6-1

Away Underdog:  3-3

Neutral Site:   3-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Cougars were 9-5 ATS in non-conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: Washington State was 6-1 as an away favorite.

 

ARIZONA (19-15 SU, 17-15 ATS, 17-14-1 O/U): Lute Olson has retired and a streak of 25 straight NCAA appearances is likely to go with him.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-8

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  6-5

Neutral Site:   2-2

Sportsbook Buster: The “over” was 12-7-1 when the Wildcats played in Pac-10 games.

Sports Betting Angle: Arizona was 8-5 ATS after a SU loss.

 

WASHINGTON (16-16 SU, 14-18 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Jon Brockman (17.8 PPG, 11.6 RPG) gets some help from a trio of heralded freshmen.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-8

Home Underdog:  2-2

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  6-4

Neutral Site:   0-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Huskies were 7-11 ATS at home.

Sports Betting Angle: Washington was 5-13 ATS on three or more days rest.

 

CALIFORNIA (17-16 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 21-8-1 O/U): Mike Montgomery moves across the Bay from Stanford to a team that lacks power in the paint.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-7-1

Home Underdog:  0-3

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  7-4

Neutral Site:   1-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Golden Bears were 5-10-1 ATS at home but 8-4 ATS on the road.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 15-4-1 in California’s Pac-10 games.

 

OREGON (18-14 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, 14-15-1 O/U): With seven new faces and only two seniors, this is a transition year for the Ducks.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-5-1

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  3-1

Away Underdog:  4-4

Neutral Site:   1-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Ducks were 11-7-1 as a favorite.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 12-5-1 in games after a SU Oregon win.

 

STANFORD (28-8 SU, 18-18 ATS, 17-18-1 O/U): New Head Coach Johnny Dawkins inherits a team that lacks those customary trees up front.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-10

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  5-3

Away Underdog:  2-2

Neutral Site:   5-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Cardinal was 6-0 ATS in regular season tournaments.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 5-1 when Stanford was an underdog.

 

OREGON STATE (6-25 SU, 10-20 ATS, 18-11 O/U): The best you can say about the Ducks is that they’re a reliable “go against” wager.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-4

Home Underdog:  0-9

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog:  6-4

Neutral Site:   1-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Beavers were 2-13 ATS at home, including 0-9 as a home underdog.

Sports Betting Angle: Oregon State was 5-14 ATS in conference play.


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