The Colts and Jaguars figure to fight it out for the AFC South title among four teams that were 24-16 ATS last year outside the division. Interestingly, at 10-2, the Titans are the only team with a winning ATS record within the division the last two seasons. (2007 regular season records in parentheses):
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): After starting 7-0, the Colts were only 6-4 SU down the stretch last year before losing as a double-digit home favorite to the Chargers in the opening round of the playoffs. The talent is there but the schedule is the league’s second toughest and OG Jake Scott, TE Ben Utecht and LB Rob Morris have left while QB Peyton Manning, DE Dwight Feeney and WR Marvin Harrison all are coming off injuries. Bets and Pieces: Indianapolis, the only team to have five straight seasons of 12 or more wins, is 10 games over .500 ATS (44-34-2) during that span.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 105-55
ATS: 81-75-4
HF: 37-35-1
HD: 4-3
AF: 25-20-2
AD: 15-17-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Colts are 8-1 as Monday Night Football favorites of more than two points.
Sports Betting Angle: Indianapolis has covered four straight games against arch-rival New England.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 12-4 O/U): The Jaguars have a shot at unseating the Colts if they can beat Indianapolis, something they’ve done just once in their last six meetings, including neither of last year’s two encounters. The defense was bolstered in the draft and QB David Garrard has a better receiving corps now that Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson are wearing Jaguars colors. Bets and Pieces: Jacksonville has covered eight of its last nine season openers.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 88-72
ATS: 84-71-5
HF: 32-25-2
HD: 12-8-1
AF: 13-20-1
AD: 27-18-1
Sportsbook Buster: The “over” is 31-16-1 in the Jaguars’ last 48 regular season games.
Sports Betting Angle: Jacksonville is 7-1-2 ATS versus Cincinnati, the last 10 meetings.
TENNESSEE TITANS (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U): The Titans bolstered their offense with the addition of TE Alge Crumpler and OG Jake Scott, more pieces to the puzzle for QB Vince Young, who still could use a top notch downfield threat. The defense was ranked No. 5 last season, even with tackle Albert Haynesworth missing three games. Bets and Pieces: Tennessee is 8-1 as a double-digit favorite after a SU win.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 91-69
ATS: 81-77-2
HF: 24-30-1
HD: 14-11
AF: 14-12-1
AD: 29-24
Sportsbook Buster: The SU winner in the Jaguars series is 24-2 ATS the last 26 meetings.
Sports Betting Angle: Tennessee has covered four straight against both Houston and Indianapolis.
HOUSTON TEXANS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): The Texans got to .500 last season and, with an improved offensive line and help at running back, could be ready to take the next step. One concern: CB Dunta Robinson may be out until midseason. Another problem: the Texans are just 4-14 SU in the division the past three seasons. Bets and Pieces: Forget the money line; the SU winner was the pointspread winner in 18 of Houston’s last 20 games.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2007)
SU: 32-64
ATS: 47-48-1
HF: 7-8
HD: 19-13-1
AF: 0-1
AD: 21-26
Sportsbook Buster: The Texans have been a solid home underdog, including 8-2 the last two seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: Houston has covered six of its last eight meetings with Jacksonville.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the third of an eight-part NFL preview series.
Next: Analyzing the AFC West
