Last time out,
The Greek Sportsbook examined the four handicapping pillars - speed, pace, track bias and value - on which a foundation of successful horse race betting is based. Aided by a professional horse player who asked that his identity be protected, over the next few months we'll take a closer look at some common handicapping mistakes, a series of misguided strategies and unproven theories that often doom the unsophisticated bettor:
Handicapping Mistake #1: It's important to pick winners: Many people are beaten before they ever visit a racetrack, wager at a satellite facility or place a bet online. The reason is that they fall prey to the most common and yet immaterial question asked in a horse wagering setting: "Who do you like?" The far more significant question is, "Who should I bet?"
"Actually, picking winners doesn't mean anything," explained a Las Vegas based professional player with an annual income derived from betting horses that reached well into six figures. "It's irrelevant. If the object of the game is make money - and why else would you play--then the way to do that is not by picking winners. Since favorites win about a third of the time, the public picks 33 percent winners. But that does them no good because the average payoff isn't high enough for them to earn a profit.
"The whole concept of gambling is to get the best of it, have the odds work in your favor," said the player. "Any time you bet on the most likely winner without considering whether you're getting a fair price, you're getting the worst of it.
"Think of it this way, if the weather forecaster said there was only a 10 percent chance of precipitation the next day then the honest price that it would rain would be 9/1," explained the player. "So if someone offered you 6/1 that it would rain, you wouldn't take the bet. But what if someone offered you 20/1? While the overwhelming likelihood still is for fair skies, remember that you're not trying to pick the winner but make a good bet, so 20/1 is an attractive wager.
"The biggest edge I have is playing against a public that doesn't have a clue," continued the professional bettor.
"Unless you're betting a stone-cold longshot, a horse who has value whether he's 25/1 or 40/1, the price makes all the difference in the world. Most guys without a mathematical background can't understand that there can be a giant difference between 2/1 and 3/1."
The player went on to explain that by eliminating horses, especially heavily bet horses, including, when possible, the favorite, the bettor is presented with more wagering options.
"If you can toss out a 4/1 shot because he should be 10/1, you begin to swing the odds in your favor. If you think the favorite isn't worth the price - and they lose twice as often as they win - you have much more leeway on how to play the race. Let's say the favorite has 30 percent of the pool. Even with the takeout, you immediately have an edge. And with the favorite out, the race rates to have a lot of good bets. Automatically, you're getting better value so you can afford to play more exacta combinations. By being able to figure out who won't win, you don't have to be as concerned with who will win."
Professional bettors like to eliminate what they call "reputation horses," those animals whose odds are more reflective of some distant accomplishment than their recent form or their realistic chances of winning that day's race.
"A good example of a reputation horse is Funny Cide," said the player. "Off any set of speed figures, he's no faster than any of the horses he's running against. He's about the same, which means he'll win occasionally. But, because he won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and developed a strong following based on a compelling life story, he's a fan favorite and is consistently over bet."
So what's the bottom line?
"Don't bet a pick. Pick a bet."
