An estimated two billion people will watch the telecast of the 77th annual Academy Awards, Feb. 27, 2005, reason enough for
The Greek Sportsbook to offer wagering on the entertainment extravaganza. Granted, betting on who will take home Oscar hasn't reached the global proportions of the World Cup or Super Bowl. But savvy players readily understand that the presence of so many unsophisticated bettors, (okay, let's call them "squares") can't help but create wagering opportunities for those who take the time to properly analyze the event.
The Greek Sportsbook already has odds posted on several Oscar categories, a list that will expand and change once the Academy Award nominations are announced on Jan. 25, 2005. An earlier date to watch is Jan. 16, when the Golden Globes are handed out in Hollywood. Winning an award from the foreign press often is a harbinger for success at the Oscar presentations, as well.
The biggest prize of the evening, of course, is for "Best Picture," the only category in which every Academy member gets to vote. (Otherwise, cinematographers vote for cinematographers, actors vote for actors, etc.). With a reminder to check
The Greek Sportsbook web site for the latest odds, let's take an alphabetical look at this year's top contenders for the Best Picture Oscar:
Alexander: The Oliver Stone epic seems to have fallen on its sword among critics. Will voters overlook what has been described as "wooden dialogue" and embrace the battle scenes and majestic sweep of the film? It's never a good sign when audiences are chuckling at the lines of a drama or making comments about the bad blond dye job of star Colin Farrell.
The Aviator: When the final odds are cast, many believe that this tale of the young and brash Howard Hughes will be the Oscar favorite. Martin Scorsese's portrait of the once-vibrant billionaire (Leonardo DiCaprio) has been compared to Bugsy, which isn't a bad thing. Interestingly, despite a storied career, Scorcese has yet to take home a Best Director Oscar.
Closer: The buzz is that Natalie Portman, who steals the film from Julia Roberts, is in line for a Best Supporting Actress nomination but that the Mike Nichols film about love and infidelity is a bit too dark to win it all. Then again, American Beauty overcame those obstacles and the all-star cast, which also includes Jude Law, is sure to attract a sizable audience.
Collateral: The talk has been more about the performances of Jamie Foxx and Tom Cruise than about the film, never a good indicator if you're aiming for the Best Picture statue. An early release also hurts the film's chances.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: The long-titled film was also long on critical acclaim but short on success at the box office. The Academy rarely awards a lackluster ticket performance with an Oscar, although Jim Carrey has a longshot chance in the Best Actor category.
Fahrenheit 9/11: Lest you've forgotten, George W. Bush, the target of Michael Moore's fiercely combative film, won reelection last November. So, will mostly liberal Hollywood, which, geography buffs will point out is located in a "blue" state, take the opportunity to flex it's muscles and fire back at the conservative administration? Or will the industry decide to give up the fight? Tinseltown watchers are divided on that question. One thing is certain, Moore and Miramax mega mogul Harvey Weinstein won't be reticent about lobbying Academy members for their support.
Finding Neverland: In a year when President Bush, Albert Kinsey and Howard Hughes have been depicted on celluloid, you wouldn't think that a movie about J. M. Barrie, the creator of Peter Pan would cause much of a stink. Think again. Though unsubstantiated by any evidence, the Catholic League has claimed that Barrie was a secret pedophile. Whether those accusations make voters more or less likely to cast ballots for the film is unknown. Look for Johnny Depp to gain another Best Actor nomination for portraying Barrie.
Hotel Rwanda: The winner of the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, Hotel Rwanda has been called "the African Schindler's List," comparing it to the only film in cinematic history to win Best Picture accolades from every major film group. Hotel Rwanda, which confronts the horrific genocide in that country, was penned by Terry George, who was nominated for an Oscar for writing In the Name of the Father. George also is the director of this "serious film" which, given Hollywood's affinity for such material, should be a prime contender.
House of Flying Daggers: Sounds odd but this is a martial arts love story with a Robin Hood theme. The underground House of Flying Daggers steals from the rich and gives to the poor at the end of the Tang Dynasty in China in 859. The movie is lavishly shot and beautifully filmed but lacks a recognizable star. Accordingly, these Daggers have to be considered a longshot to hit the Oscar mark.
Kinsey: Biographies of heroic, controversial figures have scored in films such as Gandhi and A Beautiful Mind but will Hollywood actually heap that ultimate reward on a movie about a sex researcher? Liam Neeson is superb in the title role and it doesn't hurt at all that Bill Condon, who wrote Chicago, and both inked and directed the acclaimed Gods and Monsters, is at the helm here. The Academy might seize on the opportunity to reward Condon for his recent prolific output. Watch to see how Kinsey fares against other dramatic heavyweights at the Golden Globes, Jan. 16, for a clue to its chances for a Best Picture Oscar.
The Life Aquatic: Writer/director Wes Anderson (Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums) has assembled a star studded cast in this adventure-comedy about oceanographer Steve Zissou (Bill Murray) and his hunt to track down the mysterious and perhaps non-existent Jaguar Shark. Cate Blanchett, Owen Wilson and Anjelica Huston go along for the sail in this contender.
Million Dollar Baby: The story of a boxing trainer (Clint Eastwood), his sidekick (Morgan Freeman) and the wannabe boxer (Hilary Swank) has all the earmarks of a champion. In fact, the film, which originally was slated for a 2005 release, was rushed out Dec. 17 by Warner Brothers so it would be eligible for this season's trophies. Eastwood, who has a Best Director Oscar for The Unforgiven, could be in line for his first Best Actor trophy this year. Given all that, Million Dollar Baby has to be considered a worthy challenger for top honors.
The Motorcycle Diaries: The story of a young Ernesto "Che" Guevara and his riding companion taking a beaten up motorcycle across Argentina in 1952 prior to Che becoming a stalwart of the Cuban revolution, is beautifully filmed and well-acted. Oddly, in a year of controversial subjects, Che may not be controversial enough to sway Academy to cast their ballot for him.
The Passion of the Christ: A box office star, this Mel Gibson vehicle has as many detractors as fans, especially in Hollywood where the portrayal of Jews has drawn criticism from the Simon Wiesenthal Center and been described as anti-Semitism by some. The film is probably too violent and too overtly religious to attract enough votes for Best Picture.
Phantom of the Opera: Musicals (think Chicago) have a strong track record with Academy voters but the leap from Broadway to Hollywood is a long one and critics are divided on whether the Andrew Lloyd Webber concoction is more masterpiece or mess. Moviegoers, who vote with their dollars, may ultimately decide whether the film merits attention at Oscar time.
Ray: This musical history of the legendary Ray Charles received largely warm reviews and strong audience support but most of the recent buzz has been about the performance of Jamie Foxx in the title role. Still, a tale of talent overcoming personal turmoil and adversity is one that often strikes a responsive chord with Academy voters.
Sideways: The criticism of Sideways is that it just isn't a big enough film to sweep the voters off their feet. Critics love the movie and the performance by Paul Giamatti in a hilarious and heartbreaking tragicomic role. Kudos also went out to Alexander Payne, who directed About Schmidt and makes good use of the bittersweet material here.
Spanglish: Eight-time Oscar nominee James L. Brooks is at the helm of this well-respected tale of how a Bel Air family learns lessons of life from their Mexican maid. Brooks, whose credits include As Good As It Gets and Terms of Endearment, has created a rich and sophisticated comedy-drama with both charm and attitude. With bona fide box office draw Adam Sandler heading the cast, this one definitely rates as a strong Oscar contender.
A Very Long Engagement: This anti-war World War I mystery seems well-timed to capitalize on growing public sentiment against global conflict but the period piece may have difficulty attracting a large following in a crowded field. Still, respect is warranted for the same team that gave us Amelie, a film that won five nominations.
Those who really like to think outside the box (office) may want to take a stab at Before Sunset, Being Julia, I Heart Huckabee's, The Incredibles, The Manchurian Candidate or Vera Drake, although a Best Picture nomination by any of them, let alone a victory, would be a colossal upset.
