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COLLEGE BASKETBALL FUTURES

November 2004

The college basketball season begins this month and with it comes the best future book in sports. In fact, the prices are so bettor-friendly that The Greek Sportsbook lists only one team with odds in single digits and others, such as perennial powers Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Connecticut, Arizona, Maryland, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, Texas and Gonzaga, ranging in price from 12/1 to 40/1.

Now that's value.

With a 65-team tournament - as opposed to a pair of teams arbitrarily chosen by coaches, journalists and a computer - nearly every halfway decent hardwood outfit in the nation will have a shot at cutting down the nets at the Trans World Dome in St. Louis, April 4, 2005. That's especially good news for bet makers, particularly those who like to use futures as a hedging tool at the end of the season.

With a reminder that odds are subject to change and that it's always wise to check The Greek Sportsbook web site before making a wager, let's look at a baker's dozen of top contenders. (Last year's record in parenthesis):

North Carolina (19-11): With everyone back from a team that won 19 games last season, there's optimism in Chapel Hill that second year Coach Roy Williams has the Tar Heels on track for a national title. Start with a backcourt that includes scorer Rashad McCants (20.0 ppg), point guard Raymond Felton (7.1 apg) and defensive ace Jackie Manuel and mix in a front court that features Sean May (15.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg) and Jawad Williams (12.6 ppg) and UNC appears primed for a serious run a championship. Freshman Marvin Williams is the gem of a small Tar Heel recruiting class.

Wake Forest (21-10): The Deacons return the eight players who made significant contributions to the team that led the ACC in scoring and advanced to the Sweet 16 last season. Justin Gray (17.0 ppg) was the ACC's third lading scorer while Chris Paul finished third in the league in assists (5.9 apg). Taron Downey (10.2 ppg) completes the three-guard lineup. Jamaal Levy (10.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and center Eric Williams (12.4 ppg) are stalwarts up front but Coach Skip Prosser is hoping that power forward Vytas Danelius can recapture is sophomore form so he can return Levy to his natural small forward position and bring Downey off the bench.

Kansas (24-9): The return of four starters to a team that reached the Elite Eight, plus a strong recruiting class, puts Bill Self's Jayhawks in the national title hunt again. Wayne Simien (17.7 ppg, 9.3 rpg) is a force in the paint for Kansas while the perimeter is well manned by Keith Langford (15.5 ppg), J.R. Giddens (11.3 ppg) and Aaron Miles (9.1 ppg). Freshman Sasha Kaun, who chose Kansas over Duke, is the favorite to start in the front court with Simien.

Louisville (20-10): No coach ever has taken three different schools to the Final Four but Rick Pitino, who did it with both Providence and Kentucky, has a shot to make history this year. The Cardinals have a premier player in swingman Francisco Garcia (16.4 ppg). Garcia will play more forward than guard if Brandon Jenkins can do the job at the point, allowing Taquan Dean (10.8 ppg) to move back to shooting guard. The return of Ellis Myles, who missed last season with a knee injury, gives Louisville something it didn't have last year, a presence in the low post. Highly regarded freshmen Juan Diego Palacios and Brian Johnson must help out up front.

Kentucky (27-5): Tubby Smith may have his youngest but most talented team this season. A couple of McDonald's Freshman All Americans might start, 6-11 Randolph Morris, who could have been a= first round pick in the NBA draft, and Joe Crawford. Transfer Patrick Sparks will battle another McDonald's All American, Rajon Rondo, for a starting berth next to Crawford in the backcourt. Chuck Hayes (10.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Kelenna Azubuike (11.1 ppg) bring experience to the young unit.

Illinois (26-7): The full cast from last season's Big 10 title team that lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 is back, prompting many to predict that this Illini outfit could go all the way. The quality play of Deron Williams (14.0 ppg), Dee Brown (13.3 ppg) and Luther Head (11.0 ppg) probably will force Coach Bruce Weber to use a three guard lineup most of the time. Roger Powell (11.6 ppg) and James Augustine (9.8 ppg) are the starters up front with 7-2 Nick Smith coming off the bench.

Duke (31-6): Luol Deng and Chris Duhon went to the NBA but the bigbest news in Durham was that Mike Krzyzewski didn't join them, spurning a $40 million offer to coach the Lakers. The first order of business for Coach K will be replacing Duhon, the starting point guard and emotional leader of the team for the past four years. Sean Dockery is the only true point guard on the roster. J.J. Redick (15.9 ppg) and Daniel Ewing (12.6 ppg) are solid from the perimeter and Sheldon Williams (12.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is strong in the paint. Shavlik Randolph will have to help out up front.

Connecticut (33-6): The defending national champions lose a pair of NBA first round draft choices in Emeka Okafor (17.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 4.1 bpg) and Ben Gordon (18.5 ppg), as well as steady point guard Taliek Brown (6.5 apg), so why is Coach Jim Calhoun optimistic about UConn's chances this season? Calhoun likes the athleticism of a team that features Charlie Villanueva (8.9 ppg), Rashad Anderson (11.2 ppg) and Josh Boone (5.9 ppg). There's also a fine recruiting class, headed by Rudy Gay but the Huskies look like a work in progress.

Georgia Tech (28-10): If, as they say, experience in the backcourt is the key to winning the NCAA title, then the Yellow Jackets, who made it to the championship game last year, should be in good shape. B.J. Elder (14.9 ppg) and Jarrett Jack (12.5 ppg) were All-ACC picks a season ago and Will Bynum (9.6 ppg) could be the third man in Paul Hewitt's three-guard lineup. Center Luke Schenscher (9.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg) will get some much needed help up front from heralded recruits Ra'Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith.

North Carolina State (21-10): With Julius Hodge, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, returning for his senior year, prospects again are bright for Herb Sendek's team in Raleigh. Hodge (18.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 apg) will have a new backcourt playmate in Georgetown transfer Tony Bethel at the point. Ilian Evitmov (9.8 ppg) helps out in the front court but look for a pair of highly touted freshmen, Cedric Simmons and Andrew Brackman, to have an immediate impact.

Arizona (20-10): Lute Olson's Wildcats underachieved last season and were bounced from the Big Dance in the first round. It's pay back time. Interestingly, Arizona may try to make amends with a four-guard lineup that includes Hassan Adams (17.2 ppg), Salim Stoudamire (16.3 ppg), Chris Rodgers (8.6 ppg, 42.2 percent on treys) and point guard Mustafa Shakur (9.4 ppg). Channing Frye (15.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is the main man in the paint. Center Isaiah Fox (8.5 ppg), a defensive presence, returns following a season lost to a knee injury.

Maryland (20-12): With six of its teams quoted among the top dozen on The Greek Sportsbook future book list, it may be just as difficult for Maryland (or any of the others, for that matter) to win the ACC crown as the NCAA title. But count the Terrapins among the contenders. Coach Gary Williams has one of the league's premier players in guard John Gilchrist (15.4 ppg), the MVP of the ACC Tournament. Mike Jones (40.3 percent on treys) and Chris McCray (11.0 ppg) make it difficult for Williams not to employ a three-guard attack. Nik Caner-Medley (12.2 ppg) and Travis Garrison (7.8 ppg) are holdovers up front but sophs Will Bowers and Hasan Fofana, along with freshman James Gist, should push for playing time.

Michigan State (18-12): Led by improving center Paul Davis, (15.8 ppg) the Spartans should challenge Illinois for the Big Ten title and what lies beyond. But Davis, who earned first team All Big Ten accolades a year ago, needs some help on the boards. The backcourt, which features Chris Hill (13.8 ppg), Alan Anderson (8.1 ppg), Kevin Tolbert (10.7 ppg), Shannon Brown (7.9 ppg) and freshman point guard Drew Neitzel, a sensational ball-handler with 3-point range, is deep and talented.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2005 NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Odds     Team Odds
North Carolina 13/2     California 66/1
Wake Forest 10/1     Villanova 66/1
Kansas 12/1     Virginia 66/1
Louisville 12/1     Iowa State 70/1
Kentucky 13/1     UCLA 75/1
Illinois 13/1     Florida State 75/1
Duke 14/1     Ohio State 80/1
Connecticut 15/1     LSU 80/1
Georgia Tech 15/1     Texas Tech 80/1
North Carolina State 16/1     Indiana 80/1
Arizona 18/1     Boston College 80/1
Maryland 18/1     Marquette 85/1
Michigan State 20/1     Seton Hall 85/1
Syracuse 22/1     Oregon 100/1
Oklahoma State 22/1     Tennessee 100/1
Texas 25/1     De Paul 100/1
Pittsburgh 25/1     UNC-Charlotte 100/1
Cincinnati 25/1     Missouri 125/1
Mississippi State 25/1     Southern Cal 150/1
Alabama 30/1     Arkansas 150/1
Notre Dame 35/1     Lamar 150/1
Florida 38/1     Colorado 175/1
Memphis 38/1     Utah 175/1
Gonzaga 40/1     St. Joseph's 200/1
Michigan 40/1     BYU 200/1
Washington 45/1     Dayton 200/1
Oklahoma 50/1     San Diego State 250/1
Wisconsin 50/1     Air Force 300/1
Stanford 50/1     Nevada 300/1
Providence 50/1     FIELD (All others) 15/1

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