The NFL playoffs kick off the first weekend in January but underdog players hoping to gain an extra point or two probably will have to keep their canines on a tight leash one more week before firing away at the plusses.
Yes, Virginia, it is true that this is just about the time of year when the tasseled Gucci loafer crowd seems to get interested in the NFL and their discretionary dollars tend to find their way into the favorite's column. But investing a wrinkled sawbuck at the betting windows instead of uncorking a bottle of Chardonnay generally doesn't amount to enough action to sway the oddsmakers at
The Greek Sportsbook, or any other experienced bookmaker, for that matter. No, at this stage of the game, lines still are made for the interesting array of wiseguys, sharps and sophisticated players who are responsible for the bulk of the wagering action.
Another factor weighing against any significant pointspread alteration during the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs is the widely preached and often-mocked reality that any team can beat any other on any given Sunday. So long as the Bears can knock off the Broncos at Mile High Stadium, the Falcons (minus Michael Vick) can upset the Giants in The Meadowlands, the Packers can fall to the Cardinals, or the Jaguars can beat the Colts, events that actually took place this season, oddsmakers probably will demonstrate a degree of caution when it comes to asking favorites to carry too heavy of a burden.
Last year, the Colts were a more than reasonable 6-point favorite when they were embarrassed by the Jets in the opening round of the playoffs in Indianapolis, 41-0. The Packers were modest 6 1/2-point favorites when the supposed mystique of cherished Lambeau Field was shattered by the Falcons, 27-7.
The year before, the Rams were 6-point favorites when they lost to the Saints in the opening round of the playoffs and both the Titans and the Raiders were 6-point public choices when the Ravens upset each of them on successive weekends. The Vikings were a 2-point favorite when the Giants blew them out, 41-0, in the NFC title game.
The most humiliating recent playoff loss by a favorite though has to be Denver's 30-27 home defeat to Jacksonville in 1996. The Broncos were a 14-point favorite over the Jaguars in that game.
Sure, the general public has a somewhat greater impact as the number of games dwindle and their importance grows but the unsophisticated bettor doesn't really begin to flex his wagering biceps until the second weekend of the post-season when the four teams that earned byes get to host second round games.
It's then, when an imposing home favorite gets to meet the weakest surviving wild card team, that you'll begin to see slightly inflated lines. Knowing the value of some well-earned time off at the conclusion of an exhausting 17-week NFL campaign, as well as the general public's historic preference for favorites, oddsmakers grudgingly will pump up the prices on those four home teams. Although the most recent results suggest otherwise, some players regard that as a more appropriate time to let the dogs loose. Of course, oddsmakers only can inflate the line as much as is reasonable before sophisticated bettors are lured to the underdog. It's a balancing act.
Despite adjustments, last year's balancing act was anything but Wallenda-like as three-of-four second-week home favorites, covered:
- Bet up from -4 1/2 to -6 1/2, eventual champion Tampa Bay squashed San Francisco, 31-6.
- Adjusted from -5 1/2 to -6, Oakland grounded the New York Jets, 30-10.
- Sent off as a 7 1/2-point favorite, Philadelphia covered against Atlanta, 20-6.
- Tennessee edged Pittsburgh, 34-31, but failed to cover the 5-point spread.
As for totals, they're much more a function of the teams, the matchups and the weather than any other factors affecting NFL post-season play. Still, you can expect a decrease of a point or two from the number that a similar matchup might produce during the regular season. A good example might be the Dolphins and Colts, who met in chilly Indianapolis during the 12th week of the 2000 NFL season. The spread for that game was 43. When they hooked up just five weeks later in warm and sunny Miami, the spread was down two ticks, to 41. Incidentally, both games went under the total.
So while it's true that teams do tend to play a bit more conservatively during the playoffs, don't mistake the NFL for the NBA, where regular season totals may recede by as much as eight-10 points during the playoffs.
