The Greek Sportsbook - Kentucky Derby Futures

The late Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham once compared thoroughbred racehorses to strawberries. "They're wonderful but they can spoil quickly," observed the Bald Eagle.

That's the dilemma facing future book bettors still in search of a horse for this year's Kentucky Derby, May 1. The goal is not to choose a 3-year-old that looks best now but one that will ripen at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

The growing process begins now, in March and April, when last year's precocious juveniles begin to stretch their legs and test whether their breeding, stamina, and desire can take them the demanding mile and a quarter distance required to win the most cherished race on America's thoroughbred calendar.

The key races all take place next month when the Santa Anita Park's Santa Anita Derby (April 3), Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes (April 10), Aqueduct's Wood Memorial (April 10) and Oaklawn Park's Arkansas Derby (April 10) are contested. These four races, all run at a distance of a mile and an eighth around two turns, almost certainly will anoint the favorite, as well as the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

Unquestionably, bet makers who wait for the results of those races will have a greater understanding of what's likely to happen in Louisville the following month but they'll pay for that knowledge with diminished prices.

What's more, horses who finish resolutely in any of the four nine furlong races won't necessarily come roaring down the stretch in the 10-furlong Derby any more than those front runners who wilt at a mile and an eighth won't be around at the finish of the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby. The old adage in the sport that "pace makes race" is as true in the Derby as it is in any other race.

You can always pick up a longshot on Derby day but for those looking to make a future book score, now is the time to pounce.

With a cautionary note that, like strawberries, any of the horses listed below are subject to spoil before the Run for the Roses, let's look at some early contenders:

Birdsong: Has the credentials (a win in the Champagne Stakes) the breeding (a son of 1996 Derby winner Grindstone) and the connections (trainer Nick Zito) to be near the top of the list.

Tapit: Laurel Futurity winner and the "wise guy" horse.

Eurosilver: Dominated in Lane's End Futurity. Stablemate of Birdsong has stalking style that often succeeds in the Derby.

Halfbridled: Filly won her mile and one-sixteenth race nearly a full second faster than the colts on Breeders' Cup day. She has the size to compete with the boys.

The Cliffs Edge: Another Zito horse. This one swept Churchill's two juvenile events last fall so he obviously likes the track.

Second of June: Son of Preakness winner Louis Quatorze raised eyebrows with his victory in the What A Pleasure stakes.

Lion Heart: $1.4 million purchase has looked like he's worth it on the West Coast.

One Cool Cat: Favorite for the 2000 Guineas could be Europe's best 3-year-old.

St Averil: If you like Lion Heart you can like him at a better price.

Silver Wagon: Much respect given to Hopeful win but must show more.

Action This Day: Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion has distance credentials.

Rosberg: This son of A.P. Indy, who cost $1.5 million, broke his maiden at Santa Anita in 1:08 4/5. If you bet now you have to guess whether he'll carry his obvious speed a distance of ground.

Minister Eric: Targeted to make '04 debut this month.

Read the Footnotes: Remsen winner may have distance limitations.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2004 KENTUCKY DERBY*

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURES