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BETTING COLLEGE BASKETBALL FUTURES

December 2003

Connecticut and Duke are 6/1 co-favorites to win the 2003/04 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship but if you're a bettor who insists on receiving odds of 15/1 or better on your future book selection, The Greek Sportsbook is offering 49 other teams for your consideration.

The Huskies and Blue Devils may have early designs on cutting down the nets at the Alamodome in San Antonio, April 5, but traditional hoop powers such as North Carolina, Michigan State, Kentucky, Arizona and Kansas also are in the mix, as are emerging hardcourt juggernauts such as Texas, Missouri and Florida. And as we learned last season, when eventual champion Syracuse opened at 35/1, long odds don't necessarily preclude being the last team standing.

Beyond the generous prices, another thing that's great about college basketball futures is that unlike college football where only two teams get to play for the title and a single loss can turn your ticket into confetti, if your hoop team is good enough to be just one of 65 outfits that make the NCAA Tournament, you still have a chance to win it all.

What's more, holding a live ticket on a potential champion gives you the option to hedge by saving on other teams in regional future books.

With that in mind, let's round up some of the usual (and not so usual) subjects. Last year's record is in parentheses:

CONNECTICUT (23-10): With size, speed, depth and experience, the Huskies have the talent to go all the way. Start with center Emeka Okafor, who had 22 double-doubles last season while averaging 15.9 PPG (58.0%) and 11.2 RPG. Oh, and he also led the nation in blocked shots with 4.7 per game. Collapse on the big man, you say? Guard Ben Gordon (19.5 PPG), including 41.9% from 3-point range, will destroy that strategy. Charlie Villanueva and Marcus Williams head a stellar freshman class.

DUKE (26-7): Mike Krzyzewski played six freshmen last season, a move that should benefit the team this year. Leading the contingent is guard J.J. Redick, a deadeye shooter who averaged 15 points per game. The Blue Devils probably will go with a three-guard alignment, adding Chris Duhon (9.2 PPG, 6.4 APG) and Daniel Ewing (12.0 PPG) to the starting mix. Sheldon Williams (8.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG), another of last year's frosh cast, adds muscle to the frontcourt. Highly regarded recruit Luol Deng should have an immediate impact in the paint.

TEXAS (26-7): Naismith and Wooden Award winner T.J. Ford is gone but the Longhorns may have enough gas in the tank to keep motoring along without their premier point guard. Texas had 10 players average at least 10 minutes per game last season and Longhorns reserves helped UT outscore 26 or 33 opponents in the second half. Look for more of the same fast paced offense and pressing defense with Brandon Mouton (14.8 PPG) and James Thomas (11.1 PPG, 11.0 RPG) leading the charge.

NORTH CAROLINA (19-16): Roy Williams, who won 27 or more games 10 times at Kansas, will be expected to produce immediately. That shouldn't be a problem. Point guard Raymond Felton (12.9 PPG, 6.7 APG) and shooting guard Rashad McCants (17.0 PPG) figure to improve off their freshman campaigns. Sean May (11.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG), who played in only 11 games last season because of a broken bone in his foot, teams with Jawad Williams (14.9 PPG) and David Noel to form a solid front line. The Tar Heels should be very good this season and fabulous next season.

MICHIGAN STATE (22-13): Tom Izzo is counting on improvement from his largely returning cast to equal or better last season's elite eight accomplishment. As usual, Izzo will demand unyielding defense and enthusiastic rebounding from a group that includes guards Alan Anderson (9.8 PPG) and Chris Hill (13.7 PPG), as well as big men Paul Davis and Jason Andreas. Freshmen Delco Rowley and Drew Naymick will get a chance to contribute.

KENTUCKY (32-4): Tubby Smith looks like he has a "Donut" team this year (hole in the middle) now that center Marquis Estill (11.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has departed. Options for the middle include reserve Bernard Cote, either of a pair of 7'2" freshman, Shagari Alleyne or Lukasz Obrzut, or going with a three-guard attack. Eric Daniels (9.5 PPG) and Chuck Hayes (8.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) are the mainstays up front with Gerald Fitch (12.3 PPG) and Cliff Hawkins set to team in the backcourt. Keith Bogans (15.7 PPG) will be missed. The Wildcats look like a work in progress.

MISSOURI (22-11): The Tigers lose just one player, guard Ricky Clemons (14.2 PPG), who contributed to last year's team so big things are expected from Quin Snyder's team this season. Start with 6'5" Rickey Paulding (17.4 PPG), who can play both guard and forward. Then there's 6'9" 277-pound forward Arthur Johnson (16.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG). JC transfer Randy Pulley could be the man at pointguard with Linas Kleiza, fresh off the Lithuanian National Team, likely to contribute underneath. Trevon Bryant (8.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is another banger.

FLORIDA (25-8): The Gators were suspect in the paint last season, a concern coach Billy Donovan may have addressed. Enter Florida's Mr. Basketball, 6'8" Chris Richard. The presence of Richard should allow David Lee (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to return to his natural position at power forward. Freshman recruit Mohamad Abukar will push 2002 Danish League Player of the Year Christian Drejer at small forward. Unanimous SEC Freshman team selections Anthony Roberson (12.3 PPG) and Matt Walsh (12.2 PPG) can only improve in the backcourt.

ARIZONA (28-4): Tri-captains Jason Gardner, Luke Walton and Rick Anderson are gone but Lute Olson still has enough talent to make a title run this season. Channing Frye (12.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG) led the Pac-10 in field goal percentage and is a shot-blocker in the middle. Enforcer Isaiah Fox was Frye's backup at center but could inherit the starting power forward slot. Freshman Kirk Walters also figures to get minutes up front. Mustafa Shakur, another freshman, was ranked as one of the top 10 high school seniors in the nation last year. He'll likely run the show with Salim Stoudamire (13.0 PPG) and Hassan Adams (9.1 PPG) addig scoring from the guard position.

KANSAS (30-8): First round draft choices Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich are off to the NBA and coach Roy Williams has a new zip code in Chapel Hill but it would be foolish to dismiss the Jayhawks as a champion contender. Coach Bill Self will build last year's NCAA runner-up team around guard Keith Langford (15.9 PPG) and forward Wayne Simien (14.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG). Jeff Graves, who had 16 points and 16 rebounds in Kansas' title game loss to Syracuse, adds bulk up front. McDonald's All-America freshman center David Padgett could be the answer in the middle. Aaron Miles (8.9 PPG) should ease the loss of Hinrich at the point while another McDonald's All-America, J.R. Giddens, will push for minutes at shooting guard.

LOUISVILLE (25-7): Rick Pitino's running and pressing style requires superior depth but will numbers alone be enough for the Cardinals to post another 25-win season? Louisville must replace do-everything point guard Reece Gaines (17.9 PPG, 5.0 APG) and center Marvin Stone (10.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG). Adding to Pitino's woes, forward Ellis Myles (7.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is a likely redshirt after tearing up his knee. So what’s left? Francisco Garcia (11.2 PPG), who can play either shooting guard or small forward is the top threat. Luke Whitehead (9.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Taquan Dean (8.8 PPG) also will have to contribute. Freshman Brandon Jenkins is the likely starter at the point. This team will be dynamite…next season.

GONZAGA (24-9): Anyone who witnessed the Zags' double overtime loss to Arizona in the West regional knows the Bulldogs could play with anyone last season. With West Coast Conference Player of the Year Blake Stepp (18.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) and the team's other top five scorers returning that should again be the case. Kyle Bankhead and Tony Skinner rejoin Stepp in the backcourt with Ronny Turiaf (15.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Cory Violette (11.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG) tending to matters up front. Turiaf and Violette both were first team All-WAC selections last season.

ILLINOIS (25-7): Bruce Weber averaged over 20 wins a season at Southern Illinois but taking over an Illini hoop program that lost forward Brian Cook (20.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and guard Sean Harrington (7.3 PPG) will be challenging. Weber will try to keep things going with Dee Brown (12.0 PPG, 5.0 APG) leading from his pointguard position. Luther Head, who had off-season hip surgery, will be his running mate. James Augustine (7.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Roger Powell (8.7 PPG), who was second in the Big Ten in field goal percentage, are the mainstays up front.

OKLAHOMA (27-7): Hollis Price (18.0 PPG), Ebi Ere (12.9 PPG) and Quannas White (8.6 PPG), the three guards who accounted for more than half of Oklahoma's scoring last year, are gone. In their absence, Coach Kelvin Sampson will turn to De'Angelo Alexander, who averaged 11.8 PPG during the NCAA Tournament, and Jason Detrick, a part-time starter in 2001-02 before red-shirting last season. Kevin Bookout (9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Jabahri Brown (6.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG) return to patrol the paint area. Six freshmen, including diminutive (5'7") McDonald's All-America Andrew Lavender, will have to contribute if the Sooners are to be serious Tournament threats.

OTHERS: Point guard Antonio Burks gives MEMPHIS (23-7) a chance to advance beyond the first round while Conference USA rival CINCINNATI (17-12) hopes that two-time junior college All-America Robert Whaley will ease the load on fellow forward Jason Maxwell. Defending National Champion SYRACUSE (30-5) will regroup around Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara but the loss of Carmelo Anthony likely will keep the Orange from any net-cutting ceremonies. It will be almost impossible for PITTSBURGH (28-5) to duplicate last season's victory total, especially without guard Brandin Knight. After winning it all two years ago and reaching the South Region semifinals last season, this looks like a rebuilding year at MARYLAND (21-10).

Here are odds to win next spring's Big Dance. Please check with The Greek Sportsbook for updated prices.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2004 NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Odds     Team Odds
Connecticut 6/1     Wisconsin 45/1
Duke 6/1     Villanova 50/1
Texas 15/1     LSU 50/1
North Carolina 15/1     Notre Dame 50/1
Michigan State 15/1     Stanford 50/1
Kentucky 15/1     California 50/1
Missouri 15/1     Georgia Tech 60/1
Florida 15/1     Arizona State 66/1
Arizona 15/1     Marquette 66/1
Kansas 15/1     Temple 66/1
Louisville 18/1     Minnesota 66/1
Gonzaga 25/1     Dayton 66/1
Illinois 25/1     Colorado 66/1
Oklahoma 25/1     St. Joseph's 75/1
Memphis 28/1     BYU 75/1
Cincinnati 28/1     Manhattan 75/1
Syracuse 33/1     Oregon 75/1
Pittsburgh 33/1     Seton Hall 75/1
Maryland 33/1     Georgia 75/1
Wake Forest 35/1     Alabama 80/1
Utah 38/1     Southern Cal 100/1
UCLA 38/1     Georgetown 100/1
Ohio State 40/1     Iowa State 100/1
NC State 40/1     Boston College 150/1
Texas Tech 40/1     Miami, Florida 150/1
Indiana 40/1     FIELD (All others) 10/1

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